AFL Round 2

AFL Betting Tips Round 2 with Previews

THURSDAY 25th MARCH – CARTON VS COLLINGWOOD (MCG)
This is a massive game for these two clubs, both staring down the barrel of a 0-2 start and the loser of this one will have the blowtorch applied. Carlton showed glimpses and were with Richmond for 3 quarters in the opening round. However they have done this year after year and then done nothing, this time MUST be different. Collingwood are off a dip season and although competitive simply couldn’t go with the Dogs. If they go 0-2 the Lexus Centre will not be a happy place to be.

Collingwood are on a 4-0 run against the Blues by an average of 4 goals, however goal scoring is something Collingwood struggle with. they kicked the 2nd lowest score of round 1 so this could be a strong area for the Blues to exploit as their scoring power is strong. Last year it was Collingwood 72-48 in a low scoring game and games have generally been low scoring average 134 points in 4 of the last 5 games head to head. The average losing margin over the last five games has been 22 points per game so games not tight but neither are they blowouts. This is a no bet game as neither covered the line last week so void each other as a bet on a tight -4.5 line Collingwood. No bet.

FRIDAY 26th MARCH – GEELONG VS BRISBANE (GMHBA)
Unbelievably one of these 2 sides will be 0-2 after this. With the Crows and the Swans as their opening round opponents it is hard to believe they would both drop those games. It was a classic case of just rolling up thinking the win would happen without taking the actions required for it to happen. How quickly can these sides “flick the switch” will be the key here. Geelong totally embarrassed Brisbane in last years Prelim Final in an 82-42 win and that has to be burning for Brisbane. Geelong were totally ambushed and how Chris Scott can get his troops into blue collar mode in a week will be interesting.

Geelong have won 9 of the last 10 encounters the only Brisbane win was by 1 point 2 games ago. The last 3 games have been low scoring average 135 points per game but prior that Geelong routinely kicked 100+ points per game and they were blowouts. It is a -8.5 line here Geelong and a no bet game as neither covered the handicap last week so they void each other. Looks the game of the round for this Friday night contest but it is a no bet game.

SATURDAY 27th MARCH – SYDNEY VS ADELAIDE (SCG)
What an opening round it for these two sides as they totally ambushed their far more fancied opposition. The big query in this game is going to be who can back it up as they both come in with peak performances? The Crows go on the road and the Swans return home no doubt both sides buoyed by last week’s success.

These sides have had great tussles the last few years with Sydney a 3-2 split the last 5 games. Their opening round game last year went down to the wire the Swans home by 3 points. The interesting stat here is of the last 4 games the away side has won the game, 2 at the SCG for Crows where we are here and 2 at Adelaide Oval for the Swans. The average scores have been in the 155 point range so far from high scoring. This is best reflected in that 3 of the last 4 have had an average margin of just 5 points per game.

All this suggests a tight game and this is likely a total toss of the coin game with the Swans at home a small edge however the Crows can win if they bring what they did last week. Quite remarkably one of these sides will be 2-0 at the end of this one. A no bet game given both sides peaked last week and therefore void a betting opportunity under the HBM Human Behaviour Model. No bet game.

PORT ADELAIDE VS ESSENDON (ADELAIDE OVAL)
Some real soul searching to do for the Bombers after squandering what looked to be an unassailable lead (39 points) at half time only to be rolled by a point. Rutten will be searching for the lack of defensive answers his side had when challenged by the Hawks. Port Adelaide on the other hand will want to start this game well, they came out of the blocks half asleep against the Roos last week before putting them away. If Essendon can pull off there run and gun game that dominated the Hawks in the opening half they could really bring some trouble for Port. Mind you Port do play a similar way so we get a meeting of the minds in offensive AFL game style.

Essendon have a 3-2 edge in the last 5 clashes however Port has won the last 2. Last year was a forgettable 79-29 win to Port, however prior that the last 4 games were very high scoring. The average score of those 4 games was 195 points and the winning side kicked +100 points in each case. This gives us the evidence of the teams game styles and we see a high scoring game here. We take Essendon here at the +29.5 line looking for a performance bounce off last weeks loss on the back of the Port Adelaide peak.
Essendon 1 unit +29.5 and .5 unit win $4.85

ST KILDA VS MELBOURNE (MARVEL)
It’s a big game for both of theses side, the longest premiership drought exists between these two clubs and the fans want success. Melbourne after a pathetic last couple of seasons opened the year with a win. It was far from convincing but a win all the same! St Kilda showed some nice courage, in an away from home win against another possible top 8 contender in the Giants. They came from behind in the last quarter to win nicely. The Saints will be hoping to get some talent back in missing 8 first choice players in the opening round and Melbourne will be looking for a cleaner performance after scraping to a win.

No doubt the venue of Marvel lends itself to the pacy St Kilda. The Saints have won 3 of the last 4 against the Demons however Melbourne won last year in a 49-52 win in N.T. 3 of the last 5 games between the two has been by an average margin of 8 points and two of those under 3 points. Games have had a wide spread of total game score in recent times with the lowest 101 points and the highest 236 points. Both teams covered the line last week so it’s a no bet game as they void each other from a betting perspective. No bet.

GOLD COAST VS NORTH MELBOURNE (METRICON STADIUM)
The Suns return home after a performance full of merit in the West but they came home empty handed. The loss of their superstar Matt Rowell is also a big concern. North Melbourne played a quarter of footy the challenge for them is to start bringing that sort of intensity for longer each game. The concern for the Suns is the 6 day back up from the longest trip in footy in a bruising and sapping 33 degree day. How they physically recover will be a big issue in this game.

The Gold Coast handed the Kangaroos one of their more embarrassing losses last year in a 91-28 loss at Metricon where we are here. The other two recent games at Metricon have averaged nearly 200 points per game so we may get a high scoring one here. Gold Coast got the slight line cover last week so we will take North looking for a bounce here off last weeks loss.
North Melbourne 1 unit +18.5 and .5 unit win $3.05

SUNDAY 28th MARCH – HAWTHORN VS RICHMOND (MCG)

This is a very interesting game. The Hawks likely used a stack of energy to drag themselves back from a 39 point deficit at half time to get over the line against the Bombers. How they recover and what energy they can bring will be vital. Richmond was workmanlike in there win over the Blues but they have a big score to settle with the Hawks after an embarrassing loss last year in Round 3.

Richmond has the wood over the Hawks winning 4 of the last 5 matches however Hawthorn won last year in a low scoring 71-39 low scoring win. The margins in Richmond’s wins have not been massive in a range of 12-36 points and a mid point of 24 points. The test is here for the Hawks young group in a big game at the G. A good win can give a young side some nice confidence so watch this space. Richmond got the line cover last week and we will take Hawthorn to back up from last weeks confidence building win in a small bet.
Hawthorn 1 unit +32.5 and .5 unit win $5.50

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS WEST COAST EAGLES (MARVEL)
This is a big time clash against two sides that may find themselves going deep into AFL finals in September. The Bulldogs could’ve done no more against the Pies. They were workmanlike, strong defensively and got their handball game going. The Eagles are coming through a very strong hit out and may have got more than they bargained for from the Suns in the opening round but their attacking class and flair won out.

The Eagles have been a bogey side for the Dogs although they scrambled home by 2 points in their match up last year. The Dogs had lost their 5 previous encounters. It really shapes as a battle between the Dogs defence and the Eagles attack. The last Dogs win versus West Coast was their 2016 premiership year. Take out last years game and the previous 5 games had been high scoring average in the 170 point range. The Dogs had the nice line cover last week and we will take West Coast here in a small bet.
West Coast 1 unit +7.5 and .5 unit win $2.25

FREMANTLE VS GWS GIANTS (OPTUS STADIUM)
The Dockers have been heavily hit by injuries but will be looking to respond from an average showing against the Demons in the opening round. The Giants would be licking their wounds after throwing away a golden opportunity against the Saints after leading in the final term. The Giants need to win these 50/50 games as they have two more of them in Melbourne and Collingwood next two weeks.

The Giants have won 5 of the last 6 encounters between these two sides and last year won 91-53 here in Perth. The previous 4 games had all been out of Perth so we go back to 2015/16 where GWS played here and performed well. The home deck is a big plus for the Dockers and last year they showed some brilliant defensive action. Against the Giants who are low on confidence this could become a real slog fest. It is a no bet game as both sides failed to cover lines last week so they void each other from a betting perspective.