Richmond versus GWS Giants
A crucial battle gets our AFL Betting Tips Sunday underway as Richmond host the GWS Giants at the MCG.
Richmond are really making a big bid for the AFL Finals race, and with their last 7 games at the MCG they can really finish strongly. However they do play 5 sides inside the top 8 in the run home. It starts here against the Giants who will be reeling from yet another opportunity lost losing a home match and a top 4 position to the Brisbane Lions.
GWS Giants 17% win rate at the MCG
The MCG is not a happy hunting ground for the Giants who have lost 14 of their 17 matches at the home of footy. Leon Cameron must be laying awake at night trying to figure out what the missing ingredient is. Speaking of Coach Cameron, we hear the natives are restless at GWS and with the AFL Coaching Merry-Go-Round in full play we think there is reason to believe that the pressure is on.
Damian Hardwick has coached sensationally this year keeping strong belief in a group hit by major injuries. The question will be can the Giants withstand the small forward pressure that the lethal running brigade Richmond provide. This shapes as a ripping contest.
And the numbers…
GWS has won 3 of the last 5 head to head including the last two. This includes this year at Giants GIA where GWS won 125-76 in a high scoring game. We get the nice sample here with 5 games head to head in the last 18 months including the 2017 Prelim Final in the Tigers premiership year.
We have had 3 of the last 5 in tight games with an average points margin 8 points per game. The total game score average last 5 head to head is 158 points per game with a high of 201 and a low of 109 points. The last two head to head has been at GIA and well documented is the poor MCG record for GWS. This would be the time to turn it given they have lost three of the last four in the AFL and a top 4 spot is under threat. Richmond comes here on a double peak performance run and we will take GWS looking to the bounce on the back of the peak Richmond run.
GWS 1.5 unit +15.5 and .5 unit win $2.65
Bulldogs versus Melbourne
The Western Bulldogs take on Melbourne in our AFL Betting Tips Sunday arvo game.
The Bulldogs have really hit a rich vein of form downing Port Adelaide in Adelaide and then taking care of the league leading Geelong at Marvel. Luke Beveridge declares “we are emerging again” and if that’s the case they need to take care of the Demons in this one. Not sure we need to hear these quotes Luke, just play it low key hey!
Marvel is a venue the Demons don’t play at much and this will be a big plus for the Bulldogs as they produce their top rating performances at this ground. There hasn’t been a lot for Melbourne fans to be excited about but they have won 2 of their last 3 games (after the break). Preparations for 2020 are in play ensuring they finish off the season with purpose. The question here is can the Dogs remain at the high level they are producing at the moment or is a dip due.
AFL Betting Tips – the numbers…
Melbourne has won the last three head to head after the Dogs had won the two prior. None of the last five head to head has been especially close with the tightest margin 32 points per game. Three of the last five has been at Marvel where we are here with Melbourne winning two of them. Total game scores between the two in the last five has averaged 176 points per game and at Marvel average 182 points per game.
Both teams are in good form with the Dogs winning three of last four and Melbourne two of last three. The Dogs come here on a big three game peak performance run as Melbourne won but fell in over Carlton last week. The big peak run of Bulldogs makes Melbourne a bet here under our modelling.
Melbourne 2 units +10.5 and 1 unit win $2.25
Port Adelaide versus Brisbane
Another big game in our AFL Betting Tips to wind out AFL Round 17 and it is another 8 point game between fourth placed Brisbane and seventh placed Port.
There are lots of big questions to be answered here on Port Adelaide. They have been on the win loss roller coaster since Round 6 and they are off the back of a huge win against the Crows in the Showdown. At some stage they need to stop the win/loss merry go round and really it must stop here.
Brisbane has a big ask here they are on the back of a travel game producing a peak effort over GWS to launch themselves into the top 4. On the road again here is a big ask as Brisbane have consistently failed so far in the big games this year (loss to Pies at Gabba, blitzed by Bombers at MCG). This is a big game that they must stand up in front of a hostile crowd and deliver. A really exciting element of this game is leg speed, Port were brilliant away from stoppage last week and Brisbane have some of the quickest outside legs in the caper.
AFL Betting tips – the game numbers…
Brisbane won the head to head contest this year 107-90 in Brisbane but Port has won the four prior. We get the nice sample with 4 games in the last 18 months and two of those were at Adelaide Oval where we are here. The two Adelaide Oval games were a 5 point and 40 point wins. The five head to heads have all been very high scoring at average of 211 points per game including 252 points in 2016. The high average total game scores would normally imply the bookies 164.5 over/under would be a nice bet. But the wintry conditions in Adelaide mean this may be tough to achieve.
Brisbane is on a powerful three game peak performance run here and Port on the back of the one game peak cover from the Crows win last week. We will take Port here at home to get themselves out of the win-loss weekly cycle on the back of the Lions peak run.
Port Adelaide 1.5 unit win $1.55 and .5 unit -10.5