AFL Saturday – Round 17
AFL FRIDAY NIGHT West Coast versus Collingwood – a terrific result for us in AFL Betting Tips last night in the big Friday night blockbuster as we took Collingwood +18.5 and $3 win and a great result. Collingwood actually got out to +22.5 and $3.20 win for those that go on late.
We introduce AFL Betting Tips Round 17 in a fascinating AFL Betting season. 6 of the top 8 sides play each other in a weekend that may finally give us more insight into what the 2019 AFL Premiership really looks like! Looks like a fascinating AFL Betting round.
Sydney versus Carlton – Saturday afternoon
Our early AFL Betting Tips Saturday game between these two normally wouldn’t create much interest with 14th playing 17th. But, the Sydney Swans and Carlton are both playing some solid footy.
Sydney was on a 7 week peak performance run and still were solid in defeat against the Bombers last week. This young side has taken big steps in the right direction and Longmire will be well pleased with their attitude. Carlton are a totally different side without Bolton and they are playing with a freedom that we haven’t seen for a long time. The other aspect that has been super impressive is their ability to be resilient when the game is against them. Under David Teague they have come back from 6 goals plus in every game under his guidance to either win or be beaten by under a kick.
These two sides had a great battle earlier in the year with Carlton probably the better side but Sydney getting the points. This shapes as a really strong battle and a very important game for Carlton in particular to not drop off the cliff after a month of great footy.
And the numbers…
Sydney has won four of the last five head to head including earlier this year a 93-74 win at Marvel. This game is at the SCG where three of the last five head to head have been and Sydney has won all these games. Apart from the one game that was a blowout, the games have been mid range in margin with an average of 19 points per game. The tightest game was a Sydney 74-68 win at the SCG in 2016.
Carlton comes here on a big peak performance run with four cover games in a row under Teague since the Bolton coaching change. We will take Sydney here to bounce off last weeks loss on the back of the big Carlton peak performance run.
Sydney 2 units win $1.35 and .5 unit -21.5
Hawthorn versus Fremantle
Things don’t get any better here for the Fremantle Dockers in our AFL Betting tips Saturday afternoon game against Hawthorn.
The Dockers are on a 3 game losing streak that has seen them get smashed by crosstown rival West Coast to the tune of 91 points. That was on the back of losing to Carlton (2ndbottom) and Melbourne (3rdbottom) and now they have one of the worst trips in footy from the West to Tassie!!
The other point here is the travel record of Fremantle this year. They are 2-4 on the road but two of their best wins of the year have been on the road (GWS and Collingwood). They will need to produce a big rating here in one of the toughest travel games on the roster.
Hawthorn had a great win in a come from behind victory against Collingwood. This was on the back of pushing the other Grand final team the West Coast Eagles the week before. Ross Lyon is left searching for answers and will not “defend the indefensible” after they kicked 2.19 last week and offered little to no resistance in the Derby. It has been a bit of a fall from grace for the Dockers who were sitting 6thafter beating Port Adelaide in Round 13. That was after upsetting Collingwood and since they have really fallen through the floor. Hawthorn has won both games in Tassie this year and will be hard to beat. But they are on a peak performance run.
And the numbers…
We have to go back to 2014 since Fremantle last beat Hawthorn with the Hawks winning the last five games head to head. This includes 3 games in the West and 2 games in Tassie where we are here. The wins have been comfortable for Hawthorn with the closest game a 27 point Hawthorn win and the average Hawthorn win a big 49 points per game. The two games in Tassie between the two has seen scores of 191 and 151 points per game with the total game score average 175 points per game. Hawthorn is 2-0 in Tassie this year with total game scores average in these two as 157 points per game.
Hawthorn is on a double peak performance here having won last week over Collingwood but it had lost the four games prior. Fremantle has lost its last three games having had a nice sequence of performances prior. So in that respect neither side has necessarily outperformed each other.
We will take Fremantle here to bounce off its poor loss to Eagles last week and we do so on the back of the Hawthorn double peak performance.
Fremantle 1.5 unit +14.5 and .5 unit win $2.65
Essendon versus North Melbourne
A cracker game in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday twilight match that will have a real bearing on who is a hope to make it into the AFL Finals. Essendon take on the Kangaroos and they return to the “scene of destruction” when they were crucified by Essendon on Good Friday.
This is a MASSIVE 8 point game for these sides with Essendon only percentage outside the AFL top 8 and the Kangaroos a game and percentage out.
An Essendon win would almost snuff out the Kangaroos charge (2 games plus percentage outside 8) however a Kangaroos win on the back of their recent success (winning 5 of last 6) would see them really consolidate. They have a tough ride home but it would give them a sniff. One thing for sure is the Kangaroos will not be embarrassed as they were in the Good Friday game. It shapes as a battle between toughness around the ball (Kangaroos) against break neck speed outside run (Essendon) and a fascinating contest awaits.
And the numbers…
Essendon has won the last three head to head as North won the two prior. This year was a 116-58 Bombers win at Marvel which is where we are here and the last five head to head. Two of the last three have had massive total game scores of 233 and 237 points per game. The total game score average the last five head to head is 188 points per game and we get 168.5 from the bookmakers.
This years game was a blowout but the four games prior had an average margin of 21 points per game with the winning margin between a range of 14-27 points. The odds have swung North’s way very dramatically during the week from +6.5 to +1.5 sensing North’s new found confidence. Both teams are off peak performances, in the case of North a double peak and we will take Essendon here.
Essendon 1.5 unit win $1.85
Gold Coast versus Adelaide
Two sides that were totally embarrassed go head to head in our AFL Betting Tips Saturday night clash between Gold Coast and Adelaide Crows.
Now we are not about to select Gold Coast here but we will make a few points:
* This round last year Gold Coast shocked Sydney in a win at $17
* The body language of the Crows players last week was just awful
* Gold Coast has lost 11 in a row, can that losing sequence really continue
* Post Showdown games can produce down performances
Adelaide who were in great form before their bye (8-5) have delivered back to back losses since then and were absolutely pulverised in a second half blitz last week in the Showdown. It would not have been good for the Crows players walking around town this week with that sort of loss sitting and rotting in the guts for the week.
Adelaide Crows…is redemption too strong
Then there is the chance of “redemption”. Redemption may not be the right word here as they are taking on a Suns outfit who have lost their last 11 games and were despicable in an amateur first half against the Tigers last week. Whatever inroads they had made earlier in the year have totally evaporated on the back of uncompetitive efforts. Stuart Dew doesn’t have a lot of tricks at his disposal but the lack of commitment from this group will have he and Josh Francou fuming. Gold Coast needs an effort and Adelaide needs a confidence building win.
AFL Betting Tips and the numbers…
Adelaide has never lost to the Gold Coast and has produced massive numbers along the way. Adelaide has won all 12 head to heads and in doing so has averaged 128 points per game. There has been 6 games at Metricon on the Gold Coast between the two and Adelaide has averaged 132 points per game. These are massive numbers, amongst the highest in the AFL. Adelaide really does like playing the Gold Coast!
Earlier this year in Adelaide it was the Crows 119-46 in one of the lower total game scores between the two. Of the last five head to head, the total game score average has been 201 points per game. The bookies are throwing up total game points over 157.5 so the over does look a gift. However, at Metricon this year, total game scores have been a low 152 points per game so this disrupts the potential bet although last week Richmond did kick 150 points!
This is a no bet game as both sides failed last week voiding each other of any bet.
Geelong versus St Kilda
This is a real chance for Geelong to reassert themselves in the AFL Betting Tips AFL premiership race as they take on St Kilda in Geelong on Saturday night.
Geelong have been stung with two loses in three games since returning from the bye and their scoring potency has dried right up. They now have a run of five straight games against teams outside the top AFL 8. This will likely give them an opportunity to consolidate top spot but it may also mean we don’t get a true insight to them until round 22 (Brisbane).
Saint Kilda have really been a lost cause in the last few months of footy. They have gone on to lose 8 of the last 10 and now languish in 15th spot. Alan Richardson is on borrowed time and if the Cats are up and humming, this could spell his end.
And the numbers…
Geelong has won the last two head to head and St Kilda the two prior. The wins of Geelong and St Kilda have been contrasting. Geelong’s average wins have been by 43 points per game and St Kilda’s were by 3.5 points per game. Two of the last five games have been at Geelong where the wins have been by 47 and 96 points respectively. None of this looks great for the Saints. The average total game score between the two last five has been a high 184 points per game and we get 158.5 from the bookies. The two games at GMHBA Geelong has averaged 165 points. No bet game here as both teams come off negative games last week. A bad loss here for St Kilda may see an interim coach appointed.