AFL FINALS 2019 WEEK 1 REVIEW

AFL BETTING TIPS WEEK 1 FINALS – BEST BET WINNER

We had the big result with a 3 unit Best Bet the GWS Giants in the AFL Betting Tips AFL Finals contest versus the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs were coming off a big multi game peak performance run and this made the vulnerable under our HBM Human Behaviour Model of analysis. The longer a team continues on a peak run, the more exposed they are under our AFL Betting Tips methodology and we got the nice result $1.80 win GWS. We were let down by the wobbly Cats and Brisbane who was beat up by Richmond who simply outmuscled them with their vast finals experience.

So come on Week 2 of the AFL Finals as Richmond and Collingwood go on to AFL Preliminary Finals and this week games Geelong versus West Coast at the MCG and Brisbane versus GWS at the Gabba.

Geelong home games “away from home”, please!

Whilst on the MCG, we want to voice our protest and support for Geelong. How mind blowingly stubborn and stupid are the AFL to NOT programme this game at GMHBA, Geelong’s home ground. Not only do they miss a home game in Qualifying Final week but lose one in first-semi final week to boot. Whilst 95,000 at the G versus Collingwood is a fair reason an interstate team is? Geelong can count themselves unlucky and the only answer they can give the AFL is a win and the bird!

ESSENDON OUT, WEST COAST ALIVE

Our AFL Betting TIps first AFL Final saw the West Coast Eagles host Essendon. It was a professional response” according to coach Adam Simpson by his men in a do or die final. It was obvious from the get go that that the Eagles were on who came out with a ferocious intensity and the Bombers didn’t know what had hit them in the opening term.

Bombers last final win 2004

Essendon haven’t won a final since 2004 and they were once again like deer in headlights when the game needed to be contested. Essendon love to talk themselves up as a “big” Melbourne club. Well if your definition of “big” is a large membership then fair enough. If your definition of a “big” club is winning “big” games and finals then Essendon is a subject failure. Worsfold keeps his job which is fair enough all things being equal but another year of mediocrity is on the card. For last year’s premiers, they live to fight another day.

CATS WOBBLY AGAIN AS COLLINGWOOD ON THE CHARGE

A Friday night blockbuster in our AFL Betting Tips AFL finals as Geelong “hosted” Collingwood at the MCG.

The Cats yet again failed when it counted conceding the first 10 inside 50s of the game to Collingwood and another case of dejavu for the Cats on two fronts. Geelong has an inability to bring intensity after a week off and they are 0-8 after the mid season bye and are now 1-12 if you include the week off before AFL finals. These are big problems add to that their inability to lift to Finals intensity when required and they are very quickly becoming the “teasers” of the AFL.

Wrong call Chris

Chris Scott erred in the lead up to this game too strongly pushing Geelong’s desire to play at GMBHA stadium instead of the MCG. Whilst he is right he should have been an anywhere anytime man. His debate seeps into the subconscious of his players that they are more of a chance at Geelong than the G.

Collingwood were ready and they had a high level intensity and for the first time in a long while sustained the effort. They lost De Goey and Greenwood for the prelim final which will hurt. Collingwood now get the week off into a Prelim at the MCG and are now the $3.40 second fav for the flag. Geelong now have a tough road ahead to even get into the Grand Final they have to play West Coast in another “home away game”.

BULLDOGS GONE AS GWS GIANTS 3 UNIT BEST BET

Our Third AFL Betting Tips AFL Final was the GWS Giants taking on the Western Bulldogs. It was a terrific result for subscribers as the Giants were a 3 unit Best Bet on the back of the Bulldogs multi game peak run. This was a classic HBM Human Behaviour play for subscribers which duly delivered.

Coach Beveridge pulls the wrong call

It was a bold run into the AFL Finals 2019 by the Western Bulldogs who had won 8 of 11 in the back half of the year. It was only 2 games ago they disposed of the Giants by nearly 10 goals at this venue. Luke Beveridge was quite vocal on what this side could do pumping them up as the next big thing. Very much the opposite of 2016 where they went all the way when he was very much non committal about their opportunities. It seems he got carried away with the winning wave as did his players and they paid the ultimate price. Why coaches feel they have to “pump up the tyres” of their sides is beyond us. Be low key, be humble publically but say what you want internally. Beveridge pressed the wrong button on this one.

The Giants needed that win, they have promised so much yet failed to deliver and Leon Cameron has been under a heap of outside scrutiny. GWS really had a hard edge to this match, they now play Brisbane in Brisbane and Collingwood at the MCG to get to the Grand Final so they to have a big job ahead. If they can bring that same hard edge and intensity along with scoring power they may be a roughie with a hope they are currently $13 to win the AFL Premiership flag

AFL GRAND FINAL FAVOURITE 2019 – RICHMOND

A sold out Gabba was the venue of our AFL Betting Tips Saturday night Final in what shaped as a blockbuster as 2nd placed Brisbane secured a home final against 3rd placed Richmond.

It was always the query of whether the “Lion Cubs” would handle the pressure of the big time against a seasoned outfit in Richmond that fielded 17 premiership players. Brisbane had really ticked a lot of boxes this season rising to every opportunity and they were really riding a wave of success.

It was an interesting move by coach Chris Fagan to declare that finals are a “new season” and everyone is back to zero and what you have done means nothing in hindsight. Maybe he would’ve been better riding the wave that had got them there in the first place rather than seemingly halting that momentum. Perhaps that was his way of giving his young group an insight into how different finals are but maybe “more of the same “ may have been the way to go.

Brisbane Q1 10 scoring shots to 3 Richmond

Brisbane was certainly jumpy and had a stack of the ball to do damage but kept kicking points. They had 10 scoring shots to 3 in the opening term for a 4-6 to 3 straight return. that was a big part of the game there.

Dusty Martin 6 goals thank you

Richmond were then dominant, it took them a quarter to really gain the ascendancy but then a 9 goal unanswered run in the second term ripped the game apart. Hardwick moving Dusty forward (6 goals) was another reminder of how rounded this group is and they now move to a Preliminary Final at the MCG quite an amazing rise from a team that was outside the 8 at the midway mark of the year they are now the $2.40 AFL Premiership favourite. Martin is some player thats for sure.