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AFL Betting Tips Finals – Friday night

               Will this Happen Once Again

GEELONG versus COLLINGWOOD – Friday night MCG

The cats are vulnerable, they were dominant in the opening half of the year (winning 11 of 12) but they have ben exposed in the second half of the year going win loss win loss their last 10 games. Yes they finished minor premiers but lose the “home ground” advantage by playing Collingwood at the MCG.

Chris Scott bristling at this which is an interesting public stance from a senior coach prior to the AFL Finals series. He is basically conceding his side would be better at GMBHA Stadium rather than the MCG. Whilst this might be fact it’s not a message you want to be sending to your playing group, you need to be an anywhere anytime team. The Pies themselves haven’t lit the world on fire. But key players coming back they look the value and no question they get some nice uplift in chances by having it played at their home ground.

AFL Betting Tips – Geelong off the bye and recent AFL finals results

There are a couple of key stats that are damning against Geelong before we even start to look at the head to heads. These are Geelong’s record win/loss after a bye and its win/loss in finals under Coach Chris Scott. Geelong has a terrible record coming off a bye in recent years and is 2-3 coming off a bye in finals. In finals under Chris Scott since 2011 in its premiership year, Geelong is 2-9 in finals. These are just horrendous numbers and would suggest Geelong has the job against them historically.

AFL Betting Tips – the key numbers

First note to take is that games between the two in recent times have been highly competitive and close with an average margin of 18 points per game. The range of the margins are 7 points in round 1 this year to 29 points in 2017. The season opener this year was a 72-65 Geelong win and Geelong has won the last three head to head with Collingwood winning the two prior.

Total game scores between the two has been a low 149 points in recent times in a range of 111 in 2018 to 184 points. There is no margin for error in the bookies 148.5 total over/under game score.

Geelong rank 2 points for in the AFL with Collingwood rank 7 whilst points against Geelong rank 2 and Collingwood 3. Collingwood had its back half season lull in losing 4 of 5 games between rounds 16-20 whilst Geelong has been on the win-loss sequence since its 11-1 start of the season.

Both teams come here off peak performance runs with Collingwood on a 4 game run and Geelong a 3 game run. It is a tight margin but given the extended peak run of Collingwood we will take Geelong in a small play.
Geelong .5 unit win $1.72