Port Adelaide to bounce

AFL FINALS WEEK 2, PORT ADELAIDE VS HAWTHORN, FRIDAY NIGHT 

Port Adelaide versus Hawthorn meet in Friday night AFL football at Adelaide Oval for game 1 of week 2 AFL Finals 2024. Read our AFL Preview of the big game and get all our tips for the AFL and NRL finals.

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It’s AFL Finals 2024 and after Essendon, Port Adelaide is the biggest enigma in the AFL. Let’s look at the rollercoaster 2024 for the Power. In round 15 they lost in Adelaide to Brisbane by 79 points. At this point the world was going to end and Ken Hinkley was gone. In round 21 Port Adelaide defeated top of the table Sydney by 112 points in Adelaide. Then last week it lost to Geelong at Adelaide Oval by 84 points last week in the Qualifying Final.

So that’s a 79 point loss, 112 point win and a 84 point loss ALL at Adelaide Oval against top 5 ranked teams. This is a side you cannot trust, on the up OR downside. Granted ALL sides this season have had losing sequence runs. But the gyrations at Port Adelaide Power, not just this season BUT over a long period are so extreme.

Port Adelaide last week

Port Adelaide put in one of the poorest efforts of a top 4 finals team for many a year. From the first possession from the first bounce of the game it was a fumble. The night continued to get worse from there for them. This performance was consistent with their finals performances of recent years. Clearly there is an inherent problem at this club on the big stage. They were decimated by Geelong last Thursday night AND it was a SIGNIFICANT PEAK LOSS on our modelling, no surprise there!

Hawthorn 8 game peak run

Hawthorn continues to go from strength to strength in a remarkable mid and second half year and takes another scalp along the way, the Western Bulldogs. From 0-5 it has been a big run of wins and Hawthorn on our modelling is on a 8 GAME PEAK PERFORMANCE RUN, unprecedented in the AFL. 

AFL Head to Head 

Port has won 4 of the last 5 head to head clashes including earlier this year in a come from behind 80-79 win by a point. The game prior that between the two was a 151-96 Port win and prior that Hawthorn 120-56. Margins have bounced around but we do have a 1 and 10 point margins in the last 5 clashes. Total game scores bounce around and average out at 178 points per game in a range of 130-247 points per game.

Hawthorn is on an unprecedented run of peaks, wins and highs whilst Port on its knees is looking to bounce AND on our modelling it’s a contrarian approach on Port to BOUNCE HARD or the stay the course edgy, happy with yourselves Hawks.