Our 15-1 Value Each Way chance for the Melbourne Cup 2021
Our Expert Racing Tips analyst Pete Brinky will be soon sending out his form sheet and top 3 selections for the Melbourne Cup 2021 as well as the other 9 races on the Cup Day Flemington card. In the meantime please find with our compliments the contents of our e-book for the Melbourne Cup and its conclusion in terms of an each way 15-1 value chance for the Cup.
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“THE 5 SECRETS TO BACKING MORE MELBOURNE SPRING CARNIVAL RACING WINNERS”
Our e-book “ The 5 Secrets To Backing More Melbourne Spring Carnival Racing Winners” sets out parameters to follow in order to make your selections in a manner that show a historical edge in the big races. This week in the Melbourne Cup and we have run all horses through the parameters and are left with the selection of one horse. The key elements are:
1-IF THEY HAVE TRIED AN FAILED FORGET THEM!!
2-THE SEX COUNTS WHEN IT COMES TO WINNING THE BIG ONES!!
3-AGE PROFILE IS KEY TO WINNING HOPES
4-RISK THE FAVS!!!
5- WINNING FORM IS A GREAT INDICATOR OF SUCCESS
Our 15-1 value chance ticks all the boxes of above.
GRAND PROMENADE $15
Lets recap the 5 filters that we run the entire field through in order to come up with a selection and WHY these filters are important.
1-IF THEY HAVE TRIED AN FAILED FORGET THEM!!
Only 2 of the last 28 Winners have backed up the year after being beaten in the Melbourne Cup to win. IN 2013 Fiorente won for Gai Waterhouse after being beaten by a length the year before by Green Moon, the other horse is Brew in 2000 after finishing 10th in 1999 behind Rogan Josh was able to win the big one giving McEvoy his first Cup. What this means of course is there are 25 other Melbourne Cups where the winner had NOT run the year before, so a good step is to discount any horse that has run in the cup before and not won.
This Is GRAND PROMENADES first run in the Cup
2-THE SEX COUNTS WHEN IT COMES TO WINNING THE BIG ONES!!
When it comes to the Melbourne Cup the name Makybe Diva is synonomous with the race being a 3 time winner, and given that she is the only horse to ever win the race 3 times it stands to reason that the general public have a belief that the females are as competitive as the males, this is simply NOT true in the past 28 runnings of the Melbourne Cup 22 males have won the race and 6 female winners (effectively 4 female winners as Makybe Diva won 3) so if you take out the once in a century superstar it clearly shows that backing a male is a must if you are to be on the right side of the ledger for the big race.
GRAND PROMENADE IS MALE
3-AGE PROFILE IS KEY TO WINNING HOPES
MELBOURNE CUP – there have been 4 age groups that have had success in the last 27 years with the Melbourne Cup, here are the amount of wins per age group
4 year old-8 wins
5 year old-4 wins
6 year old-11 wins
7 year old-4 wins
8 year old-1 win
These numbers point directly to the dominance of the 4 and 6 year olds in fact by putting these two age groups together they have won 19 of the last 28 Cups, that’s a good edge to know. Our theory with the 4 Year olds is they are “the new kid” on the block and generally in this scenario their full upside has yet to be seen as a result they are able to “beat the handicapper” by being allocated a weight that doesn’t accurately reflect their ability.
Our theory with the 6 year olds is two fold, 5 of the 6 year old winners have been from overseas, these horses are bred for distance and as such they are not pushed at all early some don’t even race until they are 4, this means they take a little longer to become hardened seasoned competitors, the same applies to the locals at 6 years old most often you will find these horses didn’t race until late 3 year olds and don’t peak until a couple of years later.
GRAND PROMENADE IS A 6 YEAR OLD
4-RISK THE FAVS!!!
There is a general consensus that the betting market in these big feature races is “efficient”. Given the amount of money invested and the wisdom of the crowds it does stand to reason that the starting prices of these horses are reflective of their genuine winning chance, however we believe there exists an edge to be exploited in the Melbourne Cup
No doubt this is seen as one of the hardest races in the world to pick a winner and it can pay nicely to risk the favourite in this race, in the last 28 years the favourite has won the race just 4 times at an average price of $4.80, a significant losing play, however playing the other end of the spectrum has had some results, we class a “roughie” as anything greater than $15 and those horses have won 10 of the 28 cups at an average price of $29 a significantly better return, the fact remains that taking on the fav in the Melbourne cup is the profitable play.
GRAND PROMENADE IS $15 QUALIFYING IT IN THE $15+ BRACKET
5- WINNING FORM IS A GREAT INDICATOR OF SUCCESS
When going into the Melbourne Cup its crucial that a horse is at its peak at the time of the event. History shows that winning form is the form needed to take out the Melbourne Cup in general backing last start winners into the big one is key.
13 of the last 28 winners of the Melbourne Cup were winners at the start before they won the 2 mile championship. Whilst its sits at a tick under half they have been at an average price of $10 making a very viable winning play, if you want to increase the scope to horses that have at least been placed at their run before the cup this number is 21 of last 27 winners, a real indicator that the horse MUST be on the up coming into this race very rarely do they have a poor run before the race and win, so don’t get seduced by the “poor effort” before this race thinking the horse will bounce back-it very rarely happens.
GRAND PROMENADE IS A LAST START WINNER
So whilst Pete Brinky will run his in depth assessment over the field for the big race Tuesday and come up with his considered selections (which may differ from the thoughts here) , this booklet was designed as a quick tool for punters to assess horse through a number of qualifying clauses that historically point to an extremely strong edge-so its worth noting it’s a quick way to put you onto a positive expectation horse but is no substitute for our expert analysis.
EBOOK MELBOURNE CUP TIP EACH WAY VALUE BET
GRAND PROMENADE $20
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