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3 Key Principles for the Casual Punter

iTipsports Racing and Sports Betting Tips

iTipsports is a one stop shop for all your Horse Racing Tips and sports betting tips needs. Whether it be Saturday Racing Tips or Sports Betting Tips from a range of sports. iTipsports provide what you need to improve your betting.  Itipsports engages a group of Expert Racing Tips analysts to provide Form Sheets for Melbourne Racing Tips, Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide Racing.

iTipsports uses its HBM Human Behaviour Model to create Sports Betting Tips for the AFL, NRL, NFL, EPL and NBA.  have a look at 3 basic principles for the casual punter in this information piece and we believe are crucial to investing into horse racing and sports betting.

In our series of informative blog pieces around Racing Betting Tips and Sports Betting, this article we look at 3 Key Principles for the Casual Punter. As always when you involve yourself

in betting do so responsibly.

3 Key Principles for the Casual Punter

1. You cannot create Wealth through Greed

Many casual punters seek the thrill of a life-changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth from a small outlay. The sad fact is that more often than not the opposite turns out to be the case.

After losing a few bets the casual punter normally loses his way and tends to overstretch himself by investing a lot more money than he initially had budgeted (see Betting Bank) or can even afford (chasing loses). The other way he tries to recoup losses is by taking some radical multi bet at lotto style odds (ie next to no hope of winning) thus adding even more money to the loss pile!

As a casual punter its important to have the awareness that this is a bit of fun and some entertainment and whilst you are not going into it to lose, you are not going to make your millions betting, so don’t try it. If you lapse on this Principle it only ends one way, disastrously.

If you want to try and win a million from not much then play the Lotto as sports and racing are not for you.

2. Stick with who you Know

As a casual punter you are most definitely at an advantage if you purchase credible, well researched information. This applies to most facets of life but certainly in horse racing and sports betting.

However the internet is a big wide world and full of sharks (and mermaids!!) so it can be hard to differentiate between the two when trying to find a credible source.

Some things to look for before handing over your hard earned is to go to sites that may post articles about investing or even give you a Free unconditional Trial Period (ie no credit card required until you subscribe).

Free Tips Trial Period – use to assess your analyst

Whilst its entirely possible that during the Free Trial period the advisor may not win due to sheer variance of outcomes, it is important to see that they offer a solid style of analysis in the communication such as why they have selected such a bet by giving insight in their commentary that you cant get elsewhere.

Money Management via Staking Plan and Betting Bank

As well as this, it is important for them to discuss how you should invest on a selection. This can include the amount of money or Betting Unit via a Staking Plan to be applied to the selection. This will give you an insight to the fact that they are using sound investing methodology.

Beware the spruiker of fortunes lay ahead!

We would say avoid anyone who spruiks chances of great wealth, or being on “hot streaks” or speak in terms of “10 star“ bets and the like. They are all sales ploys to lure the unsuspecting investor so don’t fall prey to these tactics and think carefully about who you invest with for information.

At the end of the day do your research and go with who you believe is genuine. The main message we want you to have is that once you find one you are happy with stick to them because invariably even a top level analyst will have runs of wins and losses.

You don’t want to leave your Form Tipping Analyst who may have had a few losses just to join an Form Tipping Analyst who may have had a few wins as you may very well be getting off the train that is about to go up again only to get on a train that is about to begin its downward decent!

3. Understanding Value in your Betting

This is a tough concept for most casual punters to get their heads around because its quite possible once you find a credible analyst there will be a lot of times he will be telling you to back a horse that is not his “top pick” in the race.

Most casual punters think if it’s a top pick, the one they think will win, why the hell are they telling me to back something else? The answer is value!

Value is a Key criteria to Betting investing

Value, understanding it and implementing it are crucial to long term success because to profit in the long term over a large series of bets you must be betting at odds that are greater than the “true” chance of the horse winning.

So contrary to what most casual punters believe its not just “roughies” that are good value, if a horses chance of winning the race is $1.50 and the bookies are betting $2 then this too is value!

So when your analyst tells you to back something else that may not be top pick its because they see it as value against the market.

So for example your Racing Form Analyst might have horses A, B, C and D marked in the following way:
A-$$3.20, B-$6, C-$23, D-$4.80

The bookies may have the market framed in the following way:
A-$2.90, B-$8, C-$15, D-$7

So in the above instance the advisor would be telling you to back B and D (as he has B at $6 chance the bookie has “overs” $8 and D he has $4.80 and is “overs” at $7) even though his top pick is A, but the bookie has the price “under” the allotted chance of winning (ie $2.90 when the advisor has assessed it at $3.20.

Understanding “Unders” and “Overs”

This is what is called “unders” and you would not be backing A as there is no edge. Horse A may win but the bet does not represent value and we believe “value ie over the rated odds” is crucial to giving you a chance to win.

In its most basic term “Value” is your edge against the market place, if you have no edge it is vey difficult to win.

So it is important to understand that the odds of horses are really only a reflection of the way the market sees its chances in the race, there are so many variables in a race (jockeys, track conditions, bad luck, good luck, tactics, fitness etc) its not an exact science and no one can ever truly know what is about to unfold in a race.

So you have to rely on the assessment you have of the overall ability of the horse, have this priced correctly and then let the variables unfold.

This subject is so basic yet complicated, the one key take away you need have is that essentially you must be backing horses that are over the odds of their chances to win, this could be a $2 shot or it could be a 50-1 shot.

Value does not discriminate!! So the next time you hear someone in the pub say “lets back the 33-1 pop it’s the value bet, there is every chance they are speaking in a misguided way.

iTipsports Racing Tips and Sports Betting Tips – Summary

So there you have it with our 3 Key Principles for the Casual Punter. If you follow the iTipsports 3 Key Principles for your Racing Tips Betting and Sports Tips Betting, you have two key outcomes available to you:
You give yourself a better chance to not only have more fun
You give yourself a better chance of finishing in front

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