Here’s a breakdown of the leading chances pending final field confirmation for the Flemington Turnbull Stakes Saturday Melbourne Racing Tips. In terms of importance, the Turnbull Stakes is a major lead in race over 2000 metres for the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival feature races including the Melbourne Cup. Via Sistina was the 2024 winner and she lines up again here.

📊 Market Leaders & Odds

As of the latest published markets:

  • super mare Via Sistina is the strong favourite, followed by:
    • Aeliana, Sir Delius and Antino
    • Buckaroo and Ceolwulf both in the market
    • Mr Brightside, Light Infantry Man, Tom Kitten  $15+

🔍 Strengths & Considerations

Via Sistina

  • As defending champion, she brings recent success in this race
  • She has strong Group 1 credentials and has shown versatility over middle distances.
  • However, being favourite is not always a ticket to victory: recent Turnbull Stakes history shows favourites have only had a mediocre strike rate.
  • Others to Watch
  • Aeliana: market has confidence in her form
  • Antino: A solid mid-tier threat
  • Buckaroo / Ceolwulf: Each has enough respect in the market to be dangerous
  • Mr Brightside / Light Infantry Man / Tom Kitten: More speculative — could be good each-way plays or surprise performers

✅ Rough Probabilistic Estimate (Based on Odds & Form)

If one were to convert those odds into rough implied win probabilities (just as a guide), you might see something like:

  • race fave is Via Sistina: 45%
  • Aeliana: 15%
  • Antino and Sir Delius 11%
  • Buckaroo / Ceolwulf: each 8%
  • Mr Brightside, Light Infantry Man, Tom Kitten 3.33% each

What a race, the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington is one of the key “springboard” races of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival. Horses who contest the Turnbull often head into the major Group 1 staying features. This includes the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate Here’s the usual progression:

🏆 Major Races After the Turnbull Stakes

✨ Caulfield Cup (2400m, Caulfield)

  • The most common next stop many Turnbull runners back up into the Caulfield Cup two weeks later.
  • Horses like Incentivise (2021) and Hartnell (2016) ran the Turnbull then Caulfield Cup.

✨ Cox Plate (2040m, Moonee Valley)

  • The weight-for-age championship of Australasia.
  • Top-class Turnbull performers (particularly middle-distance specialists) often go here instead of, or in addition to, the Caulfield Cup.
  • Examples: Winx used the Turnbull as her lead-in to Cox Plate victories.

✨ Melbourne Cup (3200m, Flemington)

  • A big proportion of Turnbull runners end up here, especially the stayers.
  • Horses often go Turnbull Stakes then the Caulfield Cup and onto Melbourne Cup, or straight from Turnbull into the Cup.
  • Eg: Verry Elleegant (2020 Turnbull winner, later Melbourne Cup winner in 2021).
  • Turnbull Stakes is a launching pad — its runners are the core contenders for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, and Melbourne Cup. The form from the race often being the strongest guide to the Cups and Plate.

Last 5 Turnbull Stakes winners — their next race(s) and how they performed

2024 — Via Sistina

Next race: Cox Plate (Moonee Valley, 26 Oct 2024) — Won by 8 lengths in record time).

2023 — Gold Trip

Next race: Caulfield Cup (21 Oct 2023) — Finished 3rd (ran on strongly after Turnbull).

2022 — Smokin’ Romans

Next race: Caulfield Cup (15 Oct 2022) — Started a short favourite and finished 7th.  He also later ran in the Melbourne Cup campaign that spring and didn’t place.

2021 — Incentivise

Next race: Caulfield Cup (16 Oct 2021) — Won the Caulfield Cup (dominant performance after Turnbull). That run made him a big spring story.

2020 — Verry Elleegant

Next race: Caulfield Cup (17 Oct 2020) — Won the Caulfield Cup. (That Caulfield Cup victory boosted her Melbourne Cup ambitions the following year.)

Quick takeaway

    • The most common immediate path for Turnbull winners is the Caulfield Cup (2400m) two weeks later — many Turnbull winners go on to contest (and sometimes win) that race.
    • Some Turnbull winners (especially elite WFA types) instead head to the Cox Plate (2040m) — e.g., Via Sistina (2024) used the Turnbull → Cox Plate path.
    • Outcomes vary: in the five above, three (Incentivise 2021, Verry Elleegant 2020, Via Sistina 2024) converted their next spring assignment into major Group 1 wins.