AFL FINALS WEEK 2
Adelaide versus Hawthorn week 2 AFL finals
It is Adelaide versus Hawthorn as the top placed team versus 8th placed team at the end of home and away season meet here. It is Adelaide versus Hawthorn in a knock out semi final Friday night AFL at Adelaide Oval. Adelaide is here off a poor loss last Friday night against Collingwood. Hawthorn is here off a strong win over GWS Giants away from Melbourne, so they travel back to back weeks. Ironically Hawthorn was here this time last year when they led all day bar the last few minutes and lost to Port Adelaide.
Head to Head clashes
Head to head these two have met twice this year in quite the contrast games BUT both were close. Earlier in the year it was a 47-44 Hawthorn win in Tassie total game points 91 and then recently a 101-87 point win at Adelaide Oval in 188 total game points. We also have another 3 point margin game in the last 5 meeting and it is Hawthorn 3-2 head to head the last 5. Total game score average 166.5 points the last 5 meetings head to head. This gives us Adelaide 72.4 average and Hawthorn 88.2 points by virtue of their 124 to 58 point win at Adelaide Oval 3 meetings ago. Take that game out and we get a recent margin average of 12.5 points per game.
Crows recent performances
On our HBM Human Behaviour Model of assessing team performance, Adelaide has a very weird profile that we see very rarely. Last week was a significant trough loss and prior that a 4 game sequence of troughs. BUT all of those troughs were TROUGH WINS, meaning the Crows won BUT did not beat market expectations. As a rule this looks like BIG bounce territory for the Crows. Hawthorn comes off a peak win over Giants, a narrow trough loss prior and prior that a 3 game peak run. All of this gives us a Crows bounce and we take them.
