AFL ROUND 4 2023 THURSDAY APRIL 6th (GABBA)
This is the first time these sides have met since the Easter Thursday game last year (7 point win Brisbane) and it shapes to be a AFL Betting Tips blockbuster game.
Collingwood has had a remarkable start to the year and although in real terms last week they didn’t “cover” our modelling still had it as a peak effort allowing for the overadjustment in line for the late Tiger withdrawals. This means Collingwood are on a 3 game “PEAK RUN” with two of those being “SIGNIFICANT PEAK” efforts indicating they have been playing well above market expectations.
Brisbane is showing an inability to string four quarters together and this saw them suffer a “SIGNIFICANT TROUGH” loss at the hands of the previously winless Bulldogs. When you dig a but deeper its doesn’t take a big imagination to think Brisbane can turn it around. A nice response at home is highly likely given the “fortress” factor that the Gabba holds for the Lions.
Collingwood are up and flying, they won in a different way last week high intensity defensive game and they were still able to stand up and deliver. It is quite impressive what they are doing at the moment.
Brisbane has defeated Collingwood the last four head to head games and this includes 3 of the last 4 at the GABBA where we are here. Last year was a 7 point win for the Lions in a high scoring 98-91 win. Prior it was a massive 142-57 win for Brisbane so they do have Collingwoods measure in recent time here.
Last time these sides met Brisbane started an almost 4 goal fav that has swung so strongly that Collingwood are now the fav for this game. Anytime you see radical shifts in the “starting price profile” of these head to head matches you really have to dig deeper and discover if the swing is being overplayed.
With Collingwood being such a STRONG public money team (particularly off the big start) and being on a 3 game peak run with Brisbane coming off a “significant trough” loss we feel there is a Brisbane bounce.
