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Human Behaviour Model

Sports Betting Tips Combo EPL, NFL, NBL AND NBA Tips

Sports Betting Tips Combo EPL, NFL, NBL AND NBA Tips with the HBM Human Behaviour Model


Sports Tips Combo

Performance is influenced by the way that humans perform and our sports betting tips model reflects this. Athletes are not robots and they do not perform exactly the same week in and week out. If they did the favorites would win all the time and of course they do not. How does it happen that the number 70 player in the world can beat the number 1 player in the world on any given day or how can it be that the bottom team beat the top team.

The answer is simply human behaviour, hence the Human Behaviour Model “HBM”. Our methodology applies to sports tips and betting for a range of sports. We apply it to AFL Betting Tips, NFL Betting Tips and EPL Betting Tips . We apply in our modelling our assessment of team performance and overlay this with the bookies handicap markets to create betting opportunities.

Quite often the top teams can look at easy opponents and think they are a walkover. However at the top level of competition you only need to be 5-10% under normal intensity and your performance is affected.

Our belief is that when bookies frame markets (line handicap betting in particular) they frame it for both sides playing at their best. They also factor in where the weight of public money might be going (note the weight of money normally goes with favorites and particularly highly offensive favorites. You see the public love winning high score teams).

After our analysis, we look to maximise the AFL, EPL and NFL tips and betting opportunities around this. We couple up the historical results of teams and then match them head to head for a competing game and then apply the bookmakers handicap markets to see if a team is a bet.


Our primary bet type is + or – the line/handicap betting. We apply some circumstances win or draw bets and more often than not will have a combination bet with a primary stake on the line/handicap with a smaller stake on a win or draw bet.

For example a bet type may be the line handicap St Kilda +32.5 or West Ham +1.5 or Buffalo Bills +11.5. We are not necessarily betting on these teams to win BUT that they will either win or lose by less than the stated + handicap. Or conversely the Western Bulldogs are -17.5 points, New England Patriots -8.5, or Chelsea -1 handicap. These line/handicap teams need to win by more than the stated amount of points to win on this selected bet type. We also have betting tips on the WIN bet, total game score over/under and total teams score over/under.

We provide AFL tips every Thursday preceding each round, NFL tips every Saturday preceding each round, and EPL tips Saturday’s of each weekend and Wednesday if there are midweek games.

Peak or trough performance and bounce teams using the “HBM”.

A team that continues to deliver peak performance(s) ie cover the line handicap on one or multiple times, is over performing and is subject to an increase weighting as a bet within the “HBM” modelling. And, the more they overperform relative to the handicap, the closer we believe they are to underperformance. That is the “HBM” in play and that is when we recommend a bet. Conversely a team that continues to underperform and miss the line/handicap is a trough performance and deemed to be looking at a bounce performance. Where teams match up and both are off the same number of peak or trough performances generally the teams neutralise each other from a betting perspective.

We analyse high intensity contact sports by finding the key factors that will affect the intensity and energy levels, and consequently the performances of players bring to matches. We understand the factors that both motivate and also demotivate players and teams. The conclusions to these scenarios are integrated into human behaviour and an increase or decrease in energy levels.

Human energy levels are the single largest asset or threat to individual and team performance. Team and individual human energy is made up of a few key areas, some of which are intensity, revenge, fatigue, rest, outside distractions, look ahead games, etc.

The AFL has high level of frequency and physical impact along with sustained running. The NFL and the NBA has the physical impact of high stress capacity and the mental stress of big thick playboooks to understand and execute strategy. And the EPL… the English Premier League home/away season, FA Cup, League Cup, Champions League, Europa League…what more can we say. iTipsports NBA, NFL and EPL jump on board.