Hawthorn a BIG value play
Our HBM Human Behaviour Model had a favourable advantage to Hawthorn in the Easter Monday AFL game against Geelong. The key here was the double game peak performance run of Geelong that made them susceptible to a flat performance. And that is exactly what we got. Our modelling identified that the bookmakers had overstated the Geelong run and that reflected in incorrect market pricing with respect to Hawthorn.
Line and Win bet Value
Hawthorn was terrific value at the +17.5 line handicap and the $3.35 WIN and we placed them as a 1.5 unit to subscribers. And we got the result in a BIG 90-78 Hawthorn win.
1.5 UNIT OUTLAY
3.7 UNIT RETURN
2.2 UNIT PROFIT
PROFIT RETURN 147%
Here is our preview of the Hawthorn game.
HAWTHORN VS GEELONG PREVIEW (MCG)
“This is the classic “marquee” Easter Monday clash that traditionally produces a contest no matter where sides are on the ladder. Geelong keep doing their thing, another nice win and cover against the Brisbane Lions that was on the back of a peak effort over Collingwood coming from 30 odd points down. An average Hawthorn was opened up by the Saints on the weekend, and that was on the back of a hard fought loss to the Blues. The key to this game is how Hawks Coach Mitchell responds to the trough effort last week”.
“This corresponding game was a cracker last year (Geelong home by 5 points). 6 of the last 7 games have all been in a range of 5-24 points, an average of 11 points per game with three of them under a 5 point margin. Total game scores or recent times have been in a wide range of a low of 133 points last year to 235 points three years ago. Very rarely does this stand alone game disappoint and the nearly 3 goal margin has appeal on the plus line Hawthorn on the back of last weeks trough performance and the double peak of Geelong”.
BET RECOMMENDATION: Hawthorn 1 unit line +17.5 and .5 unit Win $3.35
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