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AFL round 3 tips

The Tigers have the recent edge on the Hawks with an average 27 point win in their last 3 encounters. It is back to 2016 since Hawthorn has defeated Richmond and the Tigers 4-1 the last five head to head. Interesting only 1 of the last 4 head to head games has a side kicked over 100 points and in that time average total game score of 164 points per game.

Richmond were a bit slow off the mark in their Round 2 clash with the Pies but were adjusted to get the game back on their terms. It wasn’t a great spectacle in a 36-36 draw but it was a reminder of the flexibility of the Premiers. 4th rate is how Clarkson described his midfield against the Cats there are sure to be some bruised egos that will be wanting to respond here after a 61 point loss. Both sides missed covering the handicap line so neutralise each other as a betting proposition in a -16.5 and $1.45 fav Richmond. A no bet game here.

Both sides coming off unexpected losses last weekend and both for very similar reasons, they lacked total intensity. That suggests this could be a war of attrition and with the recent smashings these two sides have given each other (Dogs inflicting a 10 goal defeat in round 22 last year before the Giants did the same 2 weeks later in a final killing the Dogs season). GWS has won 4 of the last 5 head to head since losing a heart breaking Prelim Final loss in the Dogs 2016 premiership year. Interesting of the last 4 games head to head that all have had big margins, the winning side has kicked 119 points average whilst the losing score 57 points.

On efforts so far this year the Giants have improvement, however the Dogs have the bigger upside as they are playing well below their best. The million dollar question is can they unlock their best or are they too bogged down trying to figure out why they are not performing. With both sides missing the line handicap last week this is also a no bet game.

North Melbourne were very impressive in its win last week over GWS but we were most unimpressed with the Giants so we will take that win with perspective. North are utilising the contested game to get it on their terms and when they do they then have the ability to score on the counter. Sydney scrambled home against Adelaide in Round 1 and went down by a kick in round 2 against Essendon.

These two sides traditionally play close games in fact act their last 3 matches have been decided by 1 straight kick or less (Sydney winning two of those). Sydney won the last two head to head and Sydney had won the three prior. North comes off the big peak performance so we will take Sydney here in a small play. Sydney has been a drifter from +4.5 early week to +9.5 so the value has increased as the week has passed.
Sydney 1 unit +9.5

The Saints appear to be on the March after a big preseason recruiting programme and a whole new dynamic. It could be a false dawn but they looked to be much improved. Collingwood failed to kick a goal from the 10 minute mark of the second quarter in their draw with the Tigers however defensively they were very strong and can stifle the Saints. No doubt the bookies will be wrestling with the line here wondering if the Saints are the real deal or whether it’s a flash in the pan. One thing we do know is that bookies are generally 3 weeks behind a trending team, but the public take longer as they get to caught up on “last year”. In recent times its one of Saints bigger “peak efforts” so there may be a natural downward trend immediately after however its very possible this is a team to generate some value in the coming weeks. Collingwood comes off the peak as well as a +7.5 underdog last week so it’s a no bet game in what was a -20.5 and $1.30 fav Collingwood. The weight of money has been St Kilda who has tightened in the market to +14.5

The Cats another imposing win at home this time over the Hawks. Now they are getting a second straight game at their home deck and they will be looking to put the Blues to the sword. Carlton has to get their heads right at the start of the game. For whatever reason they have continued with being half asleep at the very time you need to be fully awake. It’s going to take special sides to go to Geelong and down the Cats this year. Opposing sides travelling to Geelong at some point there will be an “overcorrection” for their home dominance however this may not be one of those games. Geelong has won 4 of the last 5 head to head and generally have kicked big scores in the process. Geelong big wins will see as a rule total game score of about 200 points. Carlton lost by a point last week but covered the line as a +11.5 under dogs so two teams that both covered the line neutralises each other as a bet. No bet game here.

Brisbane was workmanlike last week and did everything they needed to do against the Dockers and they face an Eagles side who should be breathing fire after a shock loss to the Suns. We are in unchartered territory with the hub experiment and how the Eagles will respond having to prepare away from the comforts of home is a real unknown. The Lions are hard to beat at this venue and at home for the second week in a row is a powerful element to this game. The last time they met it was an 8 goal Brisbane victory so the Eagles have the task ahead. Despite the Brisbane win last week they missed covering the line as a -18.5 in a 12 point win. No bet game.

At the start of the year we had both of these sides near the bottom of the ladder. After two rounds we can say Adelaide will be more likely to be their than the Suns after a pathetic performance in Showdown. The Suns on the other hand showed some real pluck and nerve knocking off the West Coast Eagles on their merits. The young recruits stood up and delivered.

Adelaide has never lost to Gold Coast having played 13 times they are 13-0 and at Metricon are 8-0. They have kicked massive scores with a high of 153 points and most games have kicked 100+ points. They are 8-0 at Metricon so if ever a team was to be confident this would be it for Adelaide. Being out of the Adelaide fishbowl wont hurt them either.

This is a classic Human Behaviour Model game and we look to the Crows bounce. The Crows are off a terrible trough performance against a young Suns side off a massive peak effort and perhaps the best in the clubs history.
Adelaide 1 unit +3.5

Essendon remain unbeaten, however they have won both games by only 6 points. So yes some credit for winning close ones but also some trepidation knowing with some different luck they also could have lost both. We are also no clearer on what Melbourne we have on our hands with a 1 point win over Carlton conceding a 42 point lead.

Essendon has won 3 of the last 5 head to head including last year 13-112 in a 242 point game but Melbourne had won the 2 games prior. The line has swung from +1.5 underdog to -2.5 favourite Essendon. Essendon covered the line last week and Melbourne missed it in a 1 point win and we will take Melbourne here.
Melbourne 1 unit +3.5

Can we trust Port Adelaide and that is the question. For so many years they have showed true promise only to throw it away and most of the time on games they are expected to win. They are unbeaten and top of the ladder however quality of opposition will be the query as they have only taken care of the Suns and Adelaide.

The Dockers need to rectify their starts as they have lost both games however there have been aspects to like about how they have clawed their way back into the match after beginning terribly. We see the two “hub” sides go head to head neither with a “home ground” advantage tag. Freo has won 3 of the last 5 with games 1-1 last year between the two. No bet game here as both teams covered the line.