AFL SUNDAY ROUND 1 MARCH 19th
GWS GIANTS VS ADELAIDE
Two teams really trying to find their way, finishing in the lower part of the ladder with only 6 and 8 wins respectively. The Giants welcome a new coach Adam Kingsley who had great wraps on him from his time as an assistant at other clubs. He particularly clicked under Hardwick at Richmond. With the Giants coming off their worst season since 2014 the only way is up. The Giants have lost some serious talent with Hopper, Hill, Taranto, Tanner and Bruhn all departing there is some space to fill. Toby Greene the stand alone skipper seems an inspired choice.
Adelaide showed signs of improvement last year and if their practice game is anything to go by they are right on target for another leap up the ladder looking slick against the Eagles. The Giants were no slouches in their hit out with a 9 goal win over the Suns. A lot more may be known about these two sides and their outlook for 2023 post match but both coming in and looking ready to go.
The Giants have SMASHED the Crows at their last 2 meets in the 10 goal range. Ironically the last 4 games have been in Adelaide. GWS has kicked 100+ points against Adelaide in its last 2 wins and 3 of the last 5. Average total game points of recent games is a low 151.2 so the under has some appeal at the bookies market of 171.5.
LEAN ADELAIDE $2.26 and +7.5
LEAN BET – Total Game Points Under 171.5
HAWTHORN VS ESSENDON
There was an era when this game signifies two power clubs of the VFL and AFL…well not any more! Hawthorn are off back to back 8 win seasons as Sam Mitchell looks to climb. They have not played finals since 2018 but still need to find something extra to push up. Essendon have really been through a decade of hell from the supplements saga to their third coach in 4 years. There really needs to be some baseline stability found at this club.
Brad Scott is the new Essendon appointment, many were quite vocal of his coaching ability with seeming sustained success (finals) at North Melbourne. Essendon for far to long now have allowed goals to be scored too easily against them this will NO DOUBT be the first pillar that Scott addresses.
Hawthorn was solid in a scrappy encounter with Collingwood in there practise game but they hit the scoreboard. Same cannot be said for Essendon, sure they kept the Saints to only 67 points but couldn’t find the scoreboard themselves and very inaccurate (3-14).
Essendon have won 4 of the last 5 against the Hawks. Total game scores have been in the 170-180 point range and we think it falls here again. Average margins between the two of recent times has been 15 points per game in s range of 1-27 points.
LEAN HAWTHORN $2.42 +9.5
ST KILDA VS FREMANTLE
Ross the Boss is Back…the return of Ross Lyon to the AFL coaching ranks and the world is a better place for it And it’s against the side he was sacked from, the side he originally fled to when the Saints wouldn’t put their flag in the ground so no doubt a lot of undertones to find their way into the media in the lead up to this one.
All that said it’s a MASSIVE game for both clubs. Are the Saints a chance to bounce under Ross and are the Dockers able to continue their march up the ladder that saw them play finals in 2022. There is no doubt the St Kilda faithful expect big things from Ross. There is a feeling that the talent is there but the inconsistency is something that needs to be ironed out, something Lyon traditionally has a good record of doing.
The Dockers really continued their upward trajectory winning a final in great fashion and giving them some real self belief that they belong. The challenge will be to continue the rage. Justin Longmuir has done a great job at adding layers to the Fremantle game. After getting their defence in order he gradually grew the attack to bring a nice rounded version of the side without many chinks in the armour. A lot of it last year was done without the mainstay Fyfe.
These two sides have a 3-3 head to head the last 6 but the Dockers really put the Saints away at their last meeting. Total game points of recent times is in the 150 point range and the bookies have this at 157.5. 3 of the last 5 games have bene 10 points and under. Both sides produced nice hit outs in the practice games with good wins and looking for confidence boosting wins could be an intriguing encounter.
