AFL GAME DAY SATURDAY 18th MARCH
NORTH MELBOURNE VS WEST COAST – Early Game
The two cellar dwellers from last year (North 18th and West Coast 17th) face off in one of the more uninspiring opening round games. The big story of course around this game is Alistair Clarkson returning to the coaching realm. There has been the off season controversy for Clarkson that saw him stand down, but its all gone very quiet over the recent months and it seems business as usual. By far this is the biggest test of Clarkson as a coach. Sure he took Hawthorn from nothing to the best team of the modern era but with Buddy, Hodge, and Roughy arriving at the same time he had a nice base from which to build.
For a long time North Melbourne have been an irrelevant footy club. There is no doubt the ability to get Clarkson could bring about a level of relevancy not seen in a while, but as always it will come back to on field effort. They were smacked by almost 10 goals in the pre season match.
The Eagles are another shocker, the side simply has not found its mojo since the 2018 flag. Surely the most concerning aspect for Simpson is the apparent lack of fight. They just seem to give up midgame if things get a bit tough. How do you go about changing this culture? They are still a big question mark in 2023…they have the talent but need to want to use it.
North has won 3 of the last 5 head to head and total game scores have been very low at 126.8 points of recent times. Whilst the game is at Marvel 172.5 total points seems a stretch and we have a LEAN ONLY for Round 1 games at UNDER 172.5.
LEAN TIP – Total GAME Points Under 172.5
PORT ADELAIDE VS BRISBANE 4.35pm game
This is a BIG game for both of these clubs. Port Adelaide off to such a terrible start last year (0-5) can NOT afford any such stumbles this year. Coach Ken Hinkley in the last year of his contract and no doubt this will play a strong narrative through the year. Port simply MUST play finals and it starts here.
Brisbane are looking to make the finals 5 straight years, 3 of the 4 to date have been top 4 finishes BUT They have not played in the big one. This is the challenge to overcome in 2023. They cant get ahead of themselves though, they still have to win the amount of games needed to qualify. Quite often these sides who are thereabouts simply think they have to turn up to play finals. That’s NOT The case at this level and the real question is do the Lions players believe in what Fagan is preaching. Do they believe he is the man to take them to the promised land OR are they simply coached on TALENT as they have plenty of it. After falling short so many times this can all be questioned.
Brisbane have had the wood on the Power in recent times with a 5-0 head to head. Total game scores have been in the 150 point range with only 1 score in the last 10 being over 100 pts for the game. Port has really struggled to score against Brisbane and we are looking closely to see how this plays out for Port. The Lions had a lovely win against the defending premier in a trial and look on target ready to go. Port Adelaide on the other hand were a bit rusty in their 5 goal defeat to the Dockers and looked flat.
LEAN TIP ONLY – BRISBANE WIN $1.80
MELBOURNE VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – night game
The premiers of 2 years ago will no doubt have some scars after their straight sets exit from the 2022 finals series. After securing a top 2 finish losses to Sydney and Brisbane in back to back weeks destroyed their dream of playing in Victoria on Grand final day. After a first half of 2022 that was dominant it was a soul less second half for a team that has got the best talent in the AFL.
On the other side of the fence there will no doubt be some soul searching from the Dogs perspective. After a stunning finals run in 2021 they scraped into the 8 in 2022 and after dominating the opening quarter against the Dockers (held them goal less) they stumbled badly to lose what seemed almost the unlosable after quarter time.
These two sides played out a high scoring contest late last year with the Dogs getting over the line by 10 points (110-100) however these two sides appear so evenly matched with a 3-3 head to head in the last 6 games. The confusing aspect though is that in general the winning margin is decisive in that 4-5 goal range so its as though the team on the day do put the other away. If the practice match is anything to go by both of these sides have their game going the Bulldogs winning by 10 goals (kicking 148 points). Melbourne torched the Tigers by 50 points shows they will be a force to be reckoned with. Notable is the “4 Pillar” new look forward line with the Bulldogs tall timber, a shift from days gone by. Both teams can score so the +168.5 has some appeal as a LEAN BET.
LEAN BET Total Game Points +168.5
GOLD COAST VS SYDNEY – night game
Interesting match here, the Suns made a nice jump up the ladder last year with 10 wins and without doubt the Swans were the surprise packet of 2022. An almost perfect year that had a nightmare finish in the Grand Final that will test the resolve of the group. Big Grand Final losses can be hard to come back from, in recent time Port Adelaide, Adelaide and the Giants are a few embarrassed on the big stage who failed to make the finals the following year.
The Suns for whatever reason have been a side that has troubled Sydney in fact they hold a 4-2 head to head the last 6 including beating them last year when the Swans were up and rolling.
The key for Sydney this year is can their young talent produce the level of form they did last year or do opposition sides work them out a bit and they have a trough in effort. The Gold Coast question is can they put back to back seasons of quality together something they really have failed to do and can they have the watershed moment of finals in 2023. Sydney looked nice in the practice game in a clinical 9 goal win over the possible up and coming Blues, the Suns however were a bit lacklustre a 9 goal loss to the Giants.
LEAN SYDNEY $1.59 (-8.5)
