SYDNEY SWANS versus PORT ADELAIDE
It is AFL Preliminary Finals 2024 and we have two great games, 1st versus 2nd and 3rd versus 5th. We head to the AFL Preliminary Final 2024 Friday night game between the top placed Sydney Swans and the second placed Port Power. Round 21 this year top placed Sydney lost to Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval by 112 points. This result continues a long trend of dominance of Port over Sydney, now 8-0 in the last 8 head to head clashes. We go back to 2016 for the last Sydney over Port Power. Note that 4 of the last 5 of these games has been at Adelaide Oval. Only one of these at the SCG where we are here and that was a 66-64 Port win by 2 points. Sydney has won its last 4 with 2 of those by under a goal. Prior that they had a series of losses. Sports betting with itipsports covers AFL, NRL, NFL, EPL and NBA.
Port dominant over Sydney
The most striking thing about Port’s sequence of wins over Sydney has been the Swans inability to score. They average only 55.4 points per game against Port the last 5 head to head clashes. This gives us a low total game points average of only 145.4 points per game. Port gets to a high 90 points per game by virtue of the 148 points scored in its 112 point recent win. Take that out and we get 75.5 average points. Equally if we take Sydney’s 36 point score out we get 60 points score average. This brings that total game points down lower again.
Sydney off a bye and the weekend prior a last gasp win over GWS Giants, have come from behind in probably the game of the year. It was a trough win, that is they did not beat market expectations. Port Adelaide last week a mighty win over Hawthorn by 3 points having been creamed the week prior by 84 points by Geelong. These results continue some of the inconsistencies in Port Adelaide.
We spoke last week of Port Adelaide’s “enigma status” and it is worth mentioning again. In round 15 they lost in Adelaide to Brisbane by 79 points and the world was going to end and Ken Hinkley was gone. In round 21 Port Adelaide defeated top of the table Sydney by 112 points in Adelaide. Then they lost to Geelong at Adelaide Oval by 84 points in the Qualifying Final. So work all that out if you can.
Sydney off the trough win makes them likely over Port. It is likely to be low scoring based on recent contests. You cannot however deny Port Adelaide’s recent dominance over the Swans.
GEELONG CATS VERSUS BRISBANE LIONS
We head to the AFL Preliminary Final 2024 Saturday night game between third placed Geelong and fifth placed Brisbane at the MCG. Geelong has effectively been in “training run mode” for the last month. They have had 2 soft wins over West Coast (last home and away game) by over 100+ points and Port in week 1 of finals by 84 points. Brisbane is here off a last minute win 105-100 over GWS Giants last week after being 44 points down. The week prior it was a relatively soft win over Carlton.
So we have both teams of DOUBLE PEAKS, Brisbane two narrow peaks and Geelong two significant peaks. The real question here is do you prefer the team that has the soft and “fresh run” (Geelong). Or the team that comes off 2 finals and the last one a tough close win?Head to head its 3-2 Geelong the last 5 games and the last 2 games is 1-1. Both of these games have been very low scoring, 100 and 117 points per game with margins of 25 and 11 points. Total game scores between the two in recent times is a low 136 points per game in a range of 100-169 points per game.
We have one blow out game which was Geelong’s Prelim Final win 120-49 and that was the only recent game at the MCG where we are here. As we indicated in the second paragraph there is a clear distinction between the two sides on a recent games basis and this is where this game sits. You want the fresh side or the match hardened one.
Brisbane is the match hardened team looking for redemption on last years Grand Final loss to Collingwood. Geelong is the model of consistency in performance that is hard to deny.
