AFL Grand Final – 2020 SATURDAY 24 OCTOBER (GABBA)
RICHMOND VS GEELONG
It seemed a far off distant dream when the AFL competition was shut down in the opening round of the year. To think we would see an AFL Grand Final in this COVID year is quite amazing and here is are AFL Grand Final 2020. If this AFL season didn’t go ahead make no mistake the financial state of the game would’ve been verging on bankruptcy. But here we are after 17 home and away games and a terrific AFL Finals series.
One wonders whether there is something behind two Victorian sides making the Grand Final in a year where the Grand Final is being played in Queensland. Perhaps they are the best two sides and it’s simply that. But you can’t help but feel they are playing for something more than themselves. They are playing for friends family and supporters who have been in lockdown in Victoria as long as the clubs have been in hub land away from home. It is quite a powerful thought process full of emotion.
Its been a huge effort by both sides. They were told in July they would be hub for “about 30 days” and that has now been over 100 days. This years flag is certain to go down as one of the most precious of all time, the path to glory will never be this way again.
AFL Grand Final – a look at the background
Lets get into the Grand Final game. Richmond are on the fringe of a dynasty 3 flags in 4 years that puts them in the conversation of the best sides this century. That is the Lions (3), Cats(3) and the Hawks (4). Geelong have in the last 8 years continually failed in the big games not even reaching the Grand Final. With that monkey off their back does that now allows them to play with the freedom and enjoyment to bring their best.
Geelong has made the Gabba a fortress this year they are 5-0 at the Grand Final venue. Richmond have an undeniable recent record against the Cats having a 5-1 win loss record since 2017 including a round 17 win this year when they held the Cats to just 31 points, their lowest score of the year.
AFL GF 2020 – contrasting game styles
This is going to be a game of contrasting styles that is the chaos and manic pressure of Richmond versus the methodical clinical Cats approach. The Cats need to score and the move of Dangerfield forward has paid big dividends in the first two finals. He looks destined to spend most of Grand Final day there. At the other end Dusty Martin has been playing a lot more time forward. He’s a big game player 2 time Norm Smith Medallist so watch for him to spark it as well.
There will be a focus on the big forwards and Lynch and Hawkins will dominate the commentary this week. However Hawkins is possibly more important to Geelong than Lynch will be to Richmond, the Riewoldt factor gives Lynch some wiggle room here.
AFL Grand Final – Geelong
You get the feeling this is Geelong’s chance for the next few years, with an ageing list and a query on the absolute top line talent now is their time. That said year after year the regenerate their list and it is quite amazing. There will be some romance with Ablett in his last game as it will for the inspiring Dangerfield playing his first AFL Grand Final.
AFL Grand Final – Richmond
Richmond on the other hand with some great recruiting and game style improvement give the indication that they will be hanging around for a couple of more years yet. The chance at 3 flags in 4 years doesn’t happen often. However having been to the top of the mountain recently and with possibly more upside to come is there a very slight drop in the hardened hunger needed to win these games. This is a clear question to consider when analysing the game.
AFL Grand Final 2020 – Human Behaviour Model
First things first under our modelling this is a no bet game. Both teams come here off double peak performances in their finals games. In the case of Richmond it has been two tight peaks in their wins whilst Geelong come off two massive peak performance line covers in the Brisbane and Collingwood wins.
Head to head Richmond has won 4 of the last 5 including this year. We get a nice model as they have played each other 7 times in the last 4 years. Total game scores have been relatively low given the scoring prowess of these teams. The tightest margin of recent games is a 3 point Richmond win in 2018 and the largest a 66 point Geelong win. 4 of the last 7 games has been a margin under 20 points. Only 1 of the last 7 games has seen either side kick over 100+ points and the lowest score is this years Geelong 31 points (pro rata normal season score about 45 points).
AFL Grand Final – The Last Look
It is a NO BET win/line game given the peak performances of both sides negate each other and the line is -2.5 Richmond and we favour them narrowly
The total game score is +/- 117.5 and we have a total game score of 112 points so this is a marginal bet but favour the under.
We think either side can kick within the 61-75 point total game score each so don’t mind this bet;
Richmond 61-75 points 1 unit $3.20 and Geelong 61-75 points .5 unit $3.60
We think the game margin will be about 10 points margin Richmond 61 – Geelong 51 so the 1-24 point margin on your favoured side would be the bet:
Richmond 1-24 point win margin $3.60 1 unit and Geelong 1-24 point win margin $4.00