AFL Grand Final 2017
It was a successful season in AFL tips and betting 2017 with a 58.5% win ratio on our line betting, 36% win ratio on win bets and a very healthy 70% win ratio on 3 star Best Bets.
69-49 line bets season to date at 58.5%
13-23 win bets season to date at 36% ave win $3.40
14-6 three unit BEST BET line bets season to date at 70%
That said we missed badly the AFL Grand Final 2017 tips and betting result with our -6.5 Crows bet missing in a 48 point demolition by Richmond.
“Where will it be won and lost – Adelaide ranks 1 points for and rank 4 points against. Adelaide has kicked 100 points or more 15 times this year and has won all of these games. When they have kicked under 100 pts they have gone 3-6”.
– iTipsports AFL Grand Final 2017 preview
And so the above statement proved accurate for the AFL Grand Final 2017. After Q1, Adelaide froze on the big stage and could not score because of the relenting pressure of Richmond. The Adelaide forward line, so powerful all year scoring 100+ points on 15 occasions did not give a yelp. Its six forwards kicked 5.4 between them for the day in the Crows measly total score of 60 points.
Q2 The Premiership Quarter…and the game lost
The Crows talk up their Q2 as the “premiership quarter” having won an unprecedented number of second quarters all year. This is where the game was lost. We pinpoint a couple of moments that we think changed what was probably an inevitable Richmond win. Leading at 27-15, Tom Lynch has a shot on goal 30m out and misses. It was a regulation shot and sure goals are missed regularly but this was critical. Richmond then kicks the next goal as a shot from the boundary that was set up as a drop punt but became a snap shot fell short and dribbled through at ankle height with no Crows players covering the goal line. Instead of a 33-15 lead it becomes 28-22 and the Tigers have their tails up.
The Richmond Smash and Grab
Richmond talk of pressure acts and one is a stat that does not appear on the AFL stats sheets. It is the “smash and grab”…an impact act where you fairly take a player out of the contest if you do not take possession yourself. Cotchin is the leader in this front. Coach Hardwick speaks of 12 smash acts alone by the Richmond Captain which he committed and underpinned the pressure performance of Richmond. We recall seeing very few of these acts by the Crows in the AFL Grand Final 2017.
Contested possession -30 after half time
The contested possession count was within reach for Adelaide at half time but then blew out badly in the second half. This was a damning area for Adelaide, they just could not buy a contested possession and Richmond not only won this area but won easily and created thrust after thrust of forward entries.
Quote of the Day
“It was a bad day to have a bad day” – Andrew Fagan, Adelaide CEO
Never a truer word spoken than this quote. We suspect and the body language supports this that Adelaide had got ahead of itself. Our betting model, so successful all year went against us in the GF as Richmond coming off a four game multi peak performance were simply too poised and controlled on the big day. Their forward line pressure was brilliant, the mosquito fleet in full control. Its bottom eight ranked players, so unknown at season start, played like veterans and its stars, namely Rance, Martin, Cotchin and Rioli were sensational.
It will be a long long summer for Adelaide, they are good enough to bounce back but this will do some damage. They will now talk a dynasty at Richmond, as they did with the Western Bulldogs at the end of last year. Richmond do look more poised and stronger than the Bulldogs for lasting success.
A Paradigm shift in the AFL
One thing is for certain, the domination of the AFL by Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney is over and change is in the wind, nothing surer.
So to AFL 2018 tips and betting season
We will provide a full review of the seasons betting that will dissect the results. We will also provide you a side by side review for 2017 and will start from the bottom up and provide this by early next week.
Thanks for your support all year.
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