fbpx
Home » Blog » AFL Betting Tips round 3

AFL Betting Tips round 3

AFL Betting Tips ROUND 3 2021

We head to AFL Betting Tips for round 3 and we have 4 bets for the weekend. We have 3 teams coming off double peak performances under our HBM Human Behaviour Model and we will take their opposition in 2 unit bets. We also have a team coming up against another off a single game peak last week. 3 of our 4 bets are bounce teams coming off losses last week whilst our other bet was a winning side who failed to cover the line, so 4 bets in total this weekend in AFL Betting Tips.

 THURSDAY 1st APRIL
BRISBANE VS COLLINGWOOD (MARVEL)

Due to COVID the traditional Easter Thursday clash has been transferred to Marvel from the Gabba. How Brisbane can prepare both physically and mentally for this clash will go a long way to determining the result. They were ordered to stay in Melbourne on the back of the lockdown in Brisbane, how they handle it is anyone’s guess. Collingwood needed a win against arch rival Carlton and delivered. Brisbane comes off the heartbreaking 1 point loss to Geelong. Both teams covered the lines last week (Brisbane +8.5) therefore they neutralise each other from a betting perspective.

Collingwood have won 4 of the last 5 against the Lions with Brisbane winning last year in a low scoring 42-32 game. The previous 5 games had been high average total score of 185 points per game. The bookies have put up total game score of 172.5 so the over has some merit. On a head to head betting basis it is a no bet game.

FRIDAY 2nd APRIL
NORTH MELBOURNE VS WESTERN BULLDOGS (MARVEL)
On face value it appears the only way the Dogs could lose this one is if they beat themselves. However after two peak efforts and the Kangaroos off two trough efforts it is interesting from a betting perspective.  No doubt on what we have seen the Kangaroos are clear favs for the wooden spoon. The Dogs look to have some real belief and showed true grit in there come from behind win over the Eagles.

North has won 2 of the last 5 head to head versus the Bulldogs. Last year was a 87-38 win to the Dogs however the 5 clashes prior that were all close. These 5 games had an average win margin of 6 points per game so of recent times North has matched up well versus the Dogs. Despite the Dogs win they did not cover the line (-7.5 line) and North missed so they void each other from a betting perspective. It’s a big +42.5 line North but it is a no bet game.

ADELAIDE VS GOLD COAST (ADEL OVAL)
Really interesting Good Friday clash at the Adelaide Oval. The Suns have performed well smashing the Roos and pushing the Eagles all the way in the season opener. This amounts to a double peak performance for the Suns. Adelaide improved in a a huge upset defeat over the Cats in the season opener and one really bad quarter (2nd) and costly kicking (11 goals 22 points) saw them go down to the Swans.

The Suns recorded there first ever win against the Crows last year after losing 13 in a row since joining the competition. In doing so the Crows kicked over 100+ points in each of these 13 games so they have kicked big scores. That said, it was a 29-82 scoreline loss of the Crows last year. The line has tightened up here, early week Adelaide was +6.5 are now into +2.5. We will take Adelaide at +2.5 on the back of the double peak performance of the Suns and we look to a Crows bounce off last weeks loss. The total game score of over 168.5 points also has some appeal.
Adelaide 1.5 unit +2.5 and .5 unit win $2.10

SATURDAY 3rd APRIL
RICHMOND VS SYDNEY (MCG)
Sydney has got off to a 2-0 start and their youngsters have built some true belief early. This however is a far different proposition to the dominant side over the last 4 years is a big task. Richmond absolutely toyed with the Hawks last week, it wasn’t a big margin but the Tigers didn’t move out of 2nd gear. It is an exciting moment for many of the Swans boys to get on the home of footy for the first time, the MCG. But this in itself can leave players pinching themselves and forgetting the task at hand against the power of Richmond.

Richmond has won the last 3 but it was only an 8 point margin in a scrapfest last season. The games of recent times have generally been close with an average margin of only 13 points per game. This includes three games under a ten point margin. Sydney comes here off a double peak performance and Richmond despite winning missed the line cover last week. We take Richmond here on the back of the Swans two game peak.
Richmond 1 unit win $1.35 and 1 unit -24.5


ESSENDON VS ST KILDA (MARVEL)
There a HUGE questions hanging over the Essendon footy club and they were little more than training cones against Port Adelaide last week. This is on the back of blowing a 39 point lead against the Hawks a week earlier. Ben Rutten talked tough in the off season about bringing “blue collar hard work” to the club, well we haven’t seen it. The Saints had a nice come from behind win over the Giants in round one but folded badly at the hands of the Demons. With the Giants shocking loss to the Dockers there is a query on the form from that win.

The Saints have won the last 2 against the Bombers and surprisingly in lower scoring games. 4 of the last 6 games have been St Kilda wins and total games scores have been a mixed bag. It is difficult to get a read on this game and regardless both teams come of trough performances and void each other as a betting option. No bet game here.

WEST COAST VS PORT ADELAIDE (OPTUS STADIUM)
Two sides with a great rivalry and they meet in an Easter blockbuster! One interesting point is the lead in for these two sides. West Coast are coming off two high intensity and physically combative games against the Suns and game of the year so far against the Dogs. This will have them hardened and ready. The question is will Port be battle hardened and ready off an easy pre season and then two “walk through” games. They may be missing the hard edge. That said Port Adelaide can only beat who is put in front of them and they have done this very well.

Port are looking to make it 3 in a row against the Eagles having won the last 2 games. That said game wins between the two have swung both ways over a long period of time. The interesting stat here is that the away team record for both sides is very good. So playing in Perth will have no fears for Port. Port comes here off a double peak performance and the Eagles had the line cover last week in the loss to the Dogs. We have a marginal play here on West Coast but it’s a skinny margin with +1.5 line West Coast. West Coast for us but not much value in market odds so we will let it go as a bet.

SUNDAY 4th APRIL
CARLTON VS FREMANTLE (MARVEL)
Carlton simply need to start winning. That was our criticism of them pre season and they find themselves 0-2 after the opening two games. That said they have performed with some merit both margins around the 4 goal range against two possible top 8 teams. Freo are off the back of a good win and it was a brief insight into what they may be able to bring when they put consistent footy together. However no Nat Fyfe can pose some problems for the visiting side.

These two sides have been in tight games recently Carlton winning them both by 4 points. Fremantle had won the 3 games prior that and by comfortable margins. An interesting fact between these two is only one of the last eight games has been away from Perth between these two. That game in Melbourne was a soft Fremantle win and we are at Marvel here. Games between the two are generally not high scoring. We will take Carlton here looking to a bounce on the back of the Fremantle peak last week.
Carlton 1 unit win $1.45 and .5 unit -16.5

GWS VS MELBOURNE (MANUKA)
The time is NOW for the Giants. They are coming off one of their worst games in two years against the Dockers and the team that was right there on the big day in 2019 have totally fallen away. They appear to have lost their identity the former tough hard inside and run in waves outside team is no there. There looks to be leadership issues and the Senior Coach will be under fire. Melbourne have got off to the perfect 2-0 start but this is the very situation when the Demons can get ahead of themselves. It is a double peak performance start to the season for Melbourne and a 0-2 trough start for GWS.

This game is in Manuka so you would think that lends some positive news for the Giants but Melbourne hold a 3-2 head to head over the last 5 encounters. Total game scores over the last 5 games have been about average 155 points per game so not high scoring. Game margins have generally been tight with 2 of the last 5 margins under 5 points per game. We look to a GWS bounce here and this is on the back of the Melbourne double peak run.
GWS Giants 1.5 units +8.5 and .5 unit win $2.40

MONDAY 5th APRIL
GEELONG VS HAWTHORN (MCG)
The traditional Easter Monday clash between these two great rivals who have owned this game for many years and played some classics. It is hard to get a real read on both of these teams at the moment as well. The Cats scraped home against Brisbane (thanks to a non umpiring decision) on the back of a shock defeat to the Crows in round 1. The Hawks had a massive come back win in Round 1 and whilst the margin was under 5 goals against the Tigers it felt like Richmond barely got out of first gear.

Geelong absolutely smacked the Hawks by 10 goals in the corresponding game last year but Hawthorn has won 3 of the last 5 head to head games. Apart from last years game, margins between the two has been relatively tight in recent times with an average margin of 12 points per game. This includes two games under 3 points. Total game scores have fluctuated between low and high, a low of just 131 points and a high of 235 points in the recent 1 point Hawthorn win. This is a no bet game given neither side covered the line handicap last week. No bet.