AFL FUTURES BETS 2023
Our modelling using results from the last 5 years has been coupled with the historical trends that tend to show up and down movement. this is from teams with a certain profile has enabled us to extract some nice value in AFL Futures bets for the 2023 season. We have a VALUE bias within our analysis as distinct to teams that we believe are “under” the odds and represent minimal or no value in pricing.
We not only use historical data but also use our HBM Human Behaviour Model to forward project a likely season peak or trough for a side. A full list of team by team analysis will be sent over the next week to provide further overview on our views of season AFL 2023.
Based on our season assessment we have identified the following bets…
AFL PREMIERSHIP WINNER
BRISBANE LIONS ($8)
The Lions are our top pick we rate them a $5.50 hope to win the flag. NO DOUBT finals have been the big problem for them but we see them holding a dominant home record throughout the year and finishing top 2. This will give them the all important 2 finals at home. Yes they have historically failed (losses to Geelong last year (won the flag) and the year before 1 point to the Bulldogs in a remarkable finish (played off in GF Geelong again in 2020 and 3 point loss to Giants in 2019). This is a serious body of work that surely has them better prepared than ever, now must be their time.
PORT ADELAIDE ($15)
The Power simply MUST start well after a 0-5 start last year they were done. We suspect this was a group still hung up on back to back Prelim Final losses. It wasn’t until the season of 2022 was gone from their grasp that they really got going. Hinkley is a polarising coach at this club and you can guarantee his tenure will ABSOLUTELY be front and centre all year. With Rioli in, a fit Fantasia and Dixon along with the confidence Marshall has found they have a potent attack. Perhaps they can get a lift through the middle with a recognized ruck after Lycett missed most of last year and they played pinch hitters. The introduction of Horne-Francis into its midfield group is likely a very big bonus. If there is one thing about Hinkley he does have a history of pulling a rabbit out of a hat when the contract is up for renewal. Port can bounce and we have them rated a $9 chance so they represent value.
AFL TOP 4
BRISBANE ($2.25)
We have Brisbane marked $1.50 to make top 4 (see above)
PORT ADELAIDE ($4)
We have Port Adelaide marked $2.63 to make the top 4 (see above)
AFL TOP 8
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.72)
We have Port Adelaide marked $1.45 for top 8 (see above reasons)
FREMANTLE ($1.72)
We have Fremantle marked $1.50 to make the Top 8. The Dockers finally returned to the finals for the first time in 9 years in a watershed moment. For the first time in a long while they finally had some respect in the West being the DOMINANT team there. A taste of finals may be just what this young side needed. They will likely take many lessons after being goal less in Q1 of their Final. They mounted a stunning comeback to down the Dogs and were far from disgraced against the Pies. They are profiling as a side on the up
ST KILDA ($3.75)
There is some serious unfinished business for Ross Lyon and this footy club. It’s extraordinary to think he has found his way back to the helm after what was one of the more controversial coaching exits from a Grand Final coach. The Saints have all the pieces, they showed it in glimpses over the last 2 years under Ratten. Lyon will add the hard edge to this team and lift standards. They can certainly create a quick spike and a return to the finals is on the cards. We have the Saints marked $1.72 for the top 8 so some nice value here.
MISS TOP 4
RICHMOND ($1.62)
With 3 flags in the last 5 years at Tigerland you have to wonder can the hunger still be there. Players can say as much as they like that once you win one you want to keep winning them because the feeling is addictive. The truth is of course that about 3 flags in that timeframe can “top out” a team. It has been there on display missing the finals 2 years ago, squeezing in last year and bowing out in the opening game of the finals. There still appears some rebuilding to do and we accept that the Tigers hierarchy are aware of this, however so will its players. No doubt a fresh Dusty Martin will see them thereabouts but at the price we are happy to risk them to make the top 4. We have them priced at $1.36 to miss the Top 4
MISS TOP 8
CARLTON ($2.60)
They are the most “talked up hype” team in the AFL and Carlton ALMOST reached their potential in 2022. For a side that had promised so much but was bogged down by inconsistency it was this again that saw them lose from unlosable positions in the last 2 games of the year to miss the 8. First year Blues coach Voss had an obvious impact, as he did in his first year with Brisbane as coach. We are drawing on his second year at the Lions and consider a scenario likely we the same happens here. The question remains is it a spike or can it be sustained improvement. Our view is the jury is well and truly still out. They certainly have the talent to feature but we feel this has been priced strongly into the market already. We feel a small slide could be on the cards for them in 2023. It doesn’t take much imagination to see them missing the 8. Sure people are on the bandwagon of the “mighty Blues” but is it all hope. They simply haven’t done it and we rate Carlton a $1.25 to miss the 8 so $2.60 looks REAL VALUE.
AFL BETTING TIPS 2023 EVERY ROUND EVERY GAME
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