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Adelaide Racing bet $50 winner

50-1 Saturday Best Bets roughie Kingson gets home

Saturday Best Bets Racing Tips

It was not that long ago that our Expert Adelaide Racing Tips analyst Value Victor landed subscribers of iTipsports Racing a 150-1 winner in Chapel City. Our Saturday Adelaide Racing Tips and Saturday Best Bets Racing Tips delivered again. Our Saturday Best Bets Roughie was 50-1 winner Kingson the winner of race 9 at Morphettville racecourse.

The beauty of course is that the selection of Kingson was a deep value selection with our rated price being $18 and the odds on Saturday 50-1. Here is a copy of Adelaide Racing Tips Expert Value Victors race comment for Kingson on Saturday:

N7 KINGSON 1 unit Each Way ($18)

“Certainly possible it’s a length or so behind the top hopes in the field but is certainly not a 50-1 chance. Raced 4 wide no cover and battled well until final part, really made nice ground the start before knuckling down the last 200m, definitely worth and eachway play.

Adelaide Saturday Best Bet Roughie – deep value

Our Expert Adelaide Racing Tips analyst Value Victor gives us more hindsight into the selection of our Saturday Best Bet Roughie selection Kingson. Let’s break down a little bit more the selection. Firstly to tip a horse that is conceded as “possibly a length or so behind the top horses in the field” requires the word VARIANCE to be added to it.

Variance is the word applied to all of the variables at play during any given race from:
1. Track bias
2. Race speed
3. Bad/good luck in running
4. Bad/good rides
5. Horses who may not have had there best lead in that week
6. Weight carried
7. If the horse likes the track or not
8. And etc etc etc.

It Is IMPOSSIBLE to play out every scenario that may play out in a race, so when analysts are forming a view on a race its done on two fronts:

Historical data at its best what is this horse capable of producing (ie what has been its best historical rating and preferably within the recent 12 months)

How do today’s conditions apply to the historical data. In other words under the proposed conditions of todays race with its current fitness level and form how is it likely to run today.

Saturday Best Bets Racing Tips – case scenario

Of course it is not possible to know exactly how the race will be run that day. You can only make the best judgement on collated data and how it applies to today circumstances. And in truth everyone else investing in the race is in the same position. This sounds a bit strange to say but it very much is the reality of investing in horse racing and sports betting. What this means is that once you have done the due diligence and rated the horses to the best of your ability, the outcome is very much out of your hands and its all about variance.

To explain this a little further lets use an example where we have rated the following scenario:
Horse A “3 lengths better” than Horse B yet horse A is badly held up costing it 4 lengths in the straight. It stands to reason under these circumstances that Horse A will be beaten by the inferior rated horse B. It’s the reason we allocate winning chances to more than one horse because so many things can happen during a race.

This very point we have found is EXTREMELY difficult for punters to get their head around, they tend to believe the “best horse should win”.

Horse Racing Tips – key factor Fitness of Horse

1. FITNESS
2. DUE TO PEAK 4th RUN BACK
3. 4 WIDE NO COVER LAST RUN

As highlighted above in comments for the race there are also some key factors that  rate higher than the general market as follows:

FITNESS is a HUGE component of the work and analysis that Value Victor in Expert Adelaide Racing Tips in fact ALL iTipsports Racing analysts apply. Yet the market either pays little attention or believes it less important than we do! However this horse, Kingson, was profiled to peak at its 4th run back from a 3 month break and after racing 4 wide no cover last run that was going to bring it on strongly in the fitness stakes.

We think the market may have looked at some other areas that didn’t bother us as much. The horse had never finished closer than 8th in town over its last 6 visits to the Adelaide Racing Tips Morphettville racecourse. Sure when you look at the numerical perspective its not encouraging however on 4 of those 6 runs there were what I call “forgive” circumstances such as:
1. Being held up
2. Trapped wide
3. Against track bias, so I didn’t consider these as overly important in this instance.

Racing Tips – Country Trained Horses fly under the radar

Also there is NO DOUBT that country trained horses are not afforded the same respect by the market as the metropolitan trained gallopers. This is for good reason a lot of the time as the metro gallopers take on tougher opposition week after week. When you find the country trained galloper who could be “ready” you get some real overs (over our rated price). And we certainly got overs here as our Adelaide Racing Saturday Best Bets Roughie was rated $18 and paying the big 50-1 win dividend.

In finalising it’s worth remembering that we also tipped a 3 unit BEST BET in the same race which was Air Marshall. Without the stewards report released yet we can only assume there was a physical issue with the horse as it failed to stretch out the last 200m. This is yet again another case of the variables at play. We hope this goes some way to clarifying the thoughts of Expert Adelaide Racing Tips analyst Value Victor and process around the selection of horses in a race.

 iTipsports Saturday Racing Tips from its team of analysts are sent out Friday afternoon the day prior race day so you are ready and set before the masses on race day AND we follow up with Saturday morning late mail.

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