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Home » Blog » Racing Tips $200 winner last Saturday

Racing Tips $200 winner last Saturday

RACING TIPS $201 WINNER…OUR PRICE $28!!

Real Time Warrior was bet as much as $201 WIN and $41 place last Saturday

Subscribers to iTipsports Racing Sydney Racing Tips and Best Bets Tips service for Saturday Racing Tips had a GREAT day last weekend. Our Sydney Racing and Best Bet Roughie Real Time Warrior was a $201 WINNER took out Race 5 at Rosehill in the Country Classic. There was as much as 200-1 on offer leading up to the race and the horse paying $150 on the tote. There was plenty of money available for those that jumped in on our rated price was $28.

iTipsports Racing Betting Methodology…understanding VALUE

So how did we arrive at this selection and have it priced SO FAR under what the marketplace was saying its chances were? We will endeavour to give you some insight to this along with our core philosophy around doing the form and finding VALUE!!

In order to understand the tip itself its important to have an understanding of VALUE and what that means in a betting context. In its most basic form VALUE is backing a horse at a price that is GREATER than our rated chance of it winning the race. 

A horse betting market is simply a mathematical way of displaying a horses chance to win the race. The odds reflect the percentage chance the market makers think each horse has. What we do at iTipsports Racing is utilise angles to dissect the market and uncover the areas where the horses are mispriced from our analysis and offer a value proposition for us.

In its most basic form our analysis works 90% around what we feel the horse will do in TODAYS run. HOWEVER the market and general public spend most of their time analysing WHAT A HORSE DID LAST RUN. Let that sink in for a minute. So essentially what we are saying is that most people spend too much time looking at what a horse has done and NOT on what a horse can do today. In its most basic form that is where our edge exists…

Now lets have a look at our Sydney Racing Tip and BEST BET Roughie Tips and how it went around at ridiculous odds!

Sydney Race 5 REAL TIME WARRIOR WIN 200-1 √

Real Time Warrior wins the 5th at Rosehill at 200-1, you little beauty!!

This horse won 2 starts ago and ran second last start. That by itself should’ve been an indicator it was holding a suitable level of form. When you dig a bit deeper into its form this prep it resumed over 1400m was BADLY held up from the 600m to the 200m then tightened and only beaten 3 lengths. Next start jumped quickly in distance (14-1800) a big ask second up got to the middle and did enough (beaten 3 lengths) and a given the fitness improvement to come. It then came out and WON at its 3rd up start before racing at 2200m last start where was caught deep with no cover working ran second beaten under 3 lengths again. 

Value Betting Proposition 

So this was its “historical form” which even on face value is somewhat compelling. It CERTAINLY doesn’t reflect a 200-1 pop!!

As we then analyse what it may do today firstly it looked to have a nice race shape to suit. These country cups with BIG fields invariably set a better than even tempo and that was certainly the case here. They flew along and conserving energy at the back looked like it would be a plus. 

Next it was trained and ready from a fitness perspective it was 5th up (absolute hard fit for these longer races). It had an endurance boost at its previous start by working hard and we knew it would run strongly through the line. Next it had the 3kg claim this is both important for the weight relief BUT sometimes with backmarkers it can be a minus as the apprentices can struggle to get runs through the field. There is no doubt the breaks went our way from this angle as the seas parted beautifully at the 250m. Finally for whatever reason the market had DRASTICALLY underrated the lead in form. Generally this can happen when times have been a bit slow or the sectional data is lacklustre or indeed it can be the grade of the race itself. 

HOWEVER we felt it had been running in STRONG form races this time in with multiple winners out of EVERY race it had been in this preparation. Not something you see too often. Accounting for all of this data we felt it had a great “roughies” hope our major concern was possible track bias (leaders) or bad luck in running (not getting clear). It was also hard to get a true gauge on the lead in form as horses had converged from everywhere.

We framed it a $28 chance and the rest is history. There was 200-1 on offer and most subscribers who were on board with us averaged between 126-1 and 151-1.

We hope this brief outline has given you a look “behind the curtain” to some degree. We have obviously had a lot of interest after such a big priced winner and hopefully this can give people a bit more clarity on how we arrived at the tip. 

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