NFL Thursday night 90% profit
Off to a nice profit start week 12 NFL betting with a maximum bet outlay 3 units on the Browns at +3.5 and $2.60 win. A 5.6 unit return on the outlay and the most pleasing thing is on our modelling a 5 game Steelers run. This was too over stretched hence the Browns bounce and WIN. So it’s off to NFL week 12 betting. We get set for a super round of NFL and we cover games that are potential bets.
Giants versus Bucks in the NFC and the Giants sitting bottom at 2-8 come up against the 4-6 Buccaneers in 11th place. Both teams off byes and prior the Buccs a 2 game peak run but they were loss peaks. That is they beat market expectations but lost. The Giants are off a trough loss and may set up an opportunity.
Dolphins versus Patriots and the Dolphins 4-6 have got their game together and are climbing the table. They play the 3-8 Patriots in the AFC. The Patriots off a narrow trough loss last game whilst the Dolphins come here on a 3 game peak performance run. This run does look over stretched on our modelling. This given that both teams are poor offense may be low scoring.
Cowboys versus Commanders and the Cowboys rank 15 in the NFC and are in a world of pain. They are on the back of a 5 game trough run AND 4 of the 5 trough losses are SIGNIFICANT TROUGH LOSSES. This is unprecedented in our time of the HBM Human Behaviour Model assessing team performance and creating sports betting opportunities. They play the 7-4 Commanders themselves off 3 trough results BUT all were relative narrow trough losses. Last week 18-26 down to the Eagles. So the situation is 2 bounce teams playing each other with a trough differential.
Texans versus Titans with the 7-4 Texans 4th in the AFC play the 2-8 Titans sitting 14th in the AFC. The Texans off 2 peak results and one a narrow peak loss. The Titans here on an extended trough run of 5 games. This trough run for the Titans looks overdone and we look to a bounce.
Super Bowl champs under pressure
Super Bowl champs the Chiefs versus Panthers and the Chiefs had their first loss of the season last week and are now 9-1 in the AFC. They come up against the Panthers 3-7 in the NFC and here on a double peak run and off a bye. The Chiefs are nearly prohibitive odds at $1.15 and on a -11.5 line.
Broncos versus Raiders and the Broncos are 6-5 and looking to stay in play off contention in the AFC. They play the 2-8 Raiders rank 14th in the AFC. The Broncos on a 2 game peak run, one a peak loss. The other a significant peak win last week 38-6 whilst the Raiders on a 2 game trough run.
NFL Game of the Round
Big game is the Packers versus 49ers and the Packers are 7-3 play the 5-5 49ers in the NFC and a must win game for both. Fascinating position for both teams with the Packers on a 4 game trough run BUT 3 of the 4 have been TROUGH WINS. This is similar to that of the Chiefs. The 49ers are still in play off contention given the closeness of the NFC West where they sit only 1 game behind the leaders. The 49ers are on a 2 game trough run one of them a win. So we have a 4 game Packers versus 2 game 49ers trough run.
Cardinals versus Seahawks and an NFC West battle here with MASSIVE implications for the play offs in this division. We have the 6-4 Cardinals play the 5-5 Seahawks. It is a 4 game peak performance run of the Cards and 2 of those significant peaks. The Seahawks on a 2 game peak run so a 4 game peak versus 2 game peak differential.
Eagles versus Rams and the Eagles are 8-2 in the NFC East and headed to the play offs on a 2 game peak run. They play the NFC West Rams in the playoff bottleneck. The Rams off a peak win so it’s a 2 game versus 1 game peak differential.
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