ROUND 1 AFL PREVIEW WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEASON OPENER
We commence AFL Betting Tips 2022. For the round 1 games we only have a “lean” or “no lean” recommendation as our HBM Human Behaviour Model which assesses and analyses team performance and creates betting opportunities needs a week of data. So game previews and “lean” or “no lean” only for week 1.
MELBOURNE VS WESTERN BULLDOGS (MCG)
We have been calling out for this to happen for a long time. The Grand final rematch as the game to open the season is the perfect way to get things going. Melbourne the defending premiers will get to unveil what was the ever elusive flag. The Bulldogs will want to spoil the party after being ripped apart in the last half of the Grand Final. At one point it looked like a Bulldogs celebration but Melbourne got on their skates and it was all over for the Dogs.
Its going to be a fascinating match to see how the Demons handle the success. They are talking all the right things about being focussed after reaching the peak of the mountain but only time will tell. The Bulldogs it will be equally fascinating how they handle the loss and plenty of teams have gone backwards after a humiliating GF loss. The Dogs will want to avenge their defeat, not that you can ever make amends for a Grand Final loss. We will get an early insight as to where this team is at after making a stunning run through the finals. In the last 4 years the Grand Final losing side has turned the tables in the rematch the following year.
Head to Head overview
In 2021 these two met three times with a 2-1 scorecard to Melbourne of course including the 140-66 GF blowout. In the last 5 head to heads it is 3-2 to the Bulldogs. Only one of those games has reached the total game score high of the Grand Final. Outside of that the total game score has been in the 140’s. The margin in those games was average 18 points per game, so not super tight but within a margin for error. The line here is -9.5 Melbourne and the total game points 160.5. The under total game points has some appeal and we have a lean on the Bulldogs at +9.5 to make amends for the GF loss.
Lean on Bulldogs +9.5 (not a firm bet)
Lean total game points under 160.5 (not a firm bet)
