Melbourne Cup/Caulfield Cup/Cox Plate 2015 Preview

Be prepared for the biggest Spring Racing meetings for the year!

Caulfield Cup 2015 – Saturday 17^th October 2015

The Caulfield Cup is run over 2400 metres on the last day of the Caulfield Carnival.  It usually attracts a capacity field of 22, with 4 of these being emergencies, leaving a field of 18 starters to face the starter.  The race is open to horses 3 years old and above and is run under handicap conditions.  This means horse’s with the better credentials carry more weight than those with less, which is designed to try and even up the competitiveness of the field.

Many of the Caulfield Cup runners then go on to compete in the Melbourne cup 10 days later.  These days the Caulfield Cup is seen to be the best lead up race for the Melbourne Cup, with punters keeping a close eye on those runners getting home hard at the end of the shorter 2400m compared to the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup.  However if you win the Caulfield Cup you would normally receive a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup, which would then possibly see you disadvantaged in regard to the horse’s that were placed around or near to the winner of the Caulfield Cup but received no such penalty.  In recent years there has been a influx of international horses coming to Australia to win the Caulfield Cup.

The local horses have tended to have the wood on the internationals over the years, however the internationals have been more competitive in recent years.

In 2014 the Caulfield Cup runners will be competing for a total prize of 3million dollars Aus.  The better performed staying 3yr olds, now 4yr olds, from the Autumn and previous Spring have always been highly fancied in early Caulfield Cup betting.  However depending on how they return the track at the older age will determine whether they remain high up in punters calculations of form compared to the more seasoned older horses.

The previous year’s 3yr olds normally get into the race well at the weights compared to the older horses which can be a distinct advantage.  When assessing the form I would always go back to the previous seasons 3yr old form and consistent staying types from the older campaigners.  It is hard to line up the form of the internationals and for that reason would leave them out of my equations.

Cox Plate 2015 – Saturday 24^th October 2015, Moonee Valley

The Cox Plate is judged by many racing purists to be the most prestige’s and grand final of the Australian racing calendar.  It brings together the best Weight for Age horses from around the country and overseas.

WFA means the horses of same age and sex carry the same weight no matter how many races or the level of prize money they have won, unlike the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups which are run under handicap conditions where the better credentialed horses carry more weight.

The Plate is run over 2040m at Moonee Valley 10 days prior to the Melbourne Cup, making it a good lead up race and in more recent years the Plate runners have been highly fancied over the longer journey because of their class factor.  The race is hand selected by the Moonee Valley Committee and usually restricted to no more than 14 runners, giving all horses the chance of staying out of trouble in the running.

Over the years the 3yr old runners have become greater in numbers due to the significant weight advantage they receive from the older horses, approx. 10 kilograms.  Unless there is a standout WFA older runner competing, I usually work my investments around the 3yr olds as I feel the 10 kg difference gives them a distinct advantage.

Melbourne Cup 2015 – Flemington, November 4th 2015

The Melbourne Cup is run the first Tuesday in November at the Flemington Racecourse over the gruelling distance of 3200 meters (2 miles).

The field normally consists of 20+ runners who create an imposing picture as they go down the straight for the first time, with jockeys trying to get their mounts in a position to give them the best chance to run out the 3200m.

The race is run under handicap conditions, meaning the better credentialed horses have to carry more weight than those who haven’t achieved as many wins or accumulated less prize money in their careers.

It is very important for a jockey to get his mount into a position preferably no more than 2 wide as they leave the straight for the first time, so as they don’t have to cover any more distance than the already arduous 3200m.
In racing terms the jockey has to put his mount to sleep!  Over the early years of the Cup it was not always the best horse that won the race, but quite often the horse that managed to stay the distance and quite often had a lightweight.

More recently, we have seen the cup won by some of the best middle distance Weight For Age horses, who if put in the right position by jockey and allowed to relax in the run can produce a sprint for a distance that can see them put the rest of the field away.  Let’s Elope, Might and Power, Saintly, Makybe Diva and Fiorente have all been examples of this.

With this in mind, when I assess the Cup form, I tend to dismiss the many international raiders having first Australian start, as the form is too hard to line up and I concentrate on the better credentialed WFA Aussie and NZ gallopers who I believe have the class and sprint to do as those 5 previously mentioned champions of the turf did in their cups.