Golden Slipper Stakes – Rosehill racecourse
The Melbourne Cup may be the race that stops a nation but the Golden Slipper is the race that changed the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival. The Golden Slipper is a Group 1 for 2 year olds over 1200m at Rosehill Gardens and is the pinnacle of the Sydney Racing Tips Autumn Carnival.
The lucrative purse of $5 million is the richest in the world for 2 year olds. In the space of a very short period of time this race had a huge affect on the breeding and buying industries in Australian Racing. Everything is now being geared toward a quick return on investment. The old ways of breeding stayers who take 4-5 years to get a return on investment were out the window. Breeding is toward early runners is the new way of the world when within two years you could be running for multi million dollar prize money for 2 year olds.
The Golden Slipper was first run in 1957 won by Todman who’s dad Star Kingdom sired the next 4 winners. His bloodlines are still heavily present in the heritage of bloodlines in 2 year olds today.
The Golden Slipper is no doubt a race every jockey and trainer wants to win. In fact it sits comfortably in the pantheon of Australian races of the Melbourne Cup, Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup. The Golden Slipper and now The Everest join these Melbourne classics as Sydney Racing classic races.
It’s a high pressure race that only the mentally strong survive and this is horse, jockey and trainer alike. More often than not the Golden Slipper is won by a run on horse as the tactical battle and adrenaline running through horse and jockey normally set a cracking pace. The horse that nestles away gets a soft run and finishes powerfully can win. It is worth noting barrier 1 is the barrier with most Golden Slipper wins and this is a good indication that using unnecessary fuel is a big plus.
History tells us that there are two key lead in races to the Golden Slipper. These races are gender specific, the Todman Slipper Trial (colts and geldings) and the Riesling Slipper (fillies) give us such a great guide to the potential Golden Slipper winner.
The Pathway To The Golden Slipper
Todman Slipper Trial
The Todman is a Group 2 race run at set weights for the 2yo males. This race is contested by the topline youngsters and is a much sought after race to win as it carries automatic entry into the Sydney Racing Tips Golden Slipper. The race is held over the 1200m at Randwick and carries stake money of $300,000.
Runners generally come into this race via the Pago Pago or even the Group 2 Skyline Stakes. It is also possible to see some horses with a previous race record resume in this race. This race is such a key lead up to the Golden Slipper with Farnan (only 2 years ago) doing the Todman/Golden Slipper double, Capitalist (2nd2016), Vancouver (1st 2015), Pierro (1st 2012), Sepoy (2nd 2012) and Phelan Ready (1st 2009) are all Todman Stakes winners to win or run 2nd and then go on to win the Slipper.
Riesling Slipper
The Riesling Slipper is run on the same day as the Todman but is for the fillies. It’s a Group 2 race run over 1200m and is the final hitout for many of the girls heading to the Golden Slipper. The winner of this race is also guaranteed a spot in the Golden Slipper a fortnight later.
The race is worth 300,000 and has been a great lead in for females wanting Slipper glory. Estijaab was the last filly to complete the Rielsing/Golden Slipper double (2018) however She will Reign (2nd 2017), Mossman (2nd2014), Forensics (2007) and Miss Finland (2006) are all horses to go on and win the Slipper after running well in the Riesling.
Last Start Winners the secret to the Golden Slipper
LAST START WINNERS
Its sounds so strange to say this but it’s the truth…a profitable strategy in the Golden Slipper is to back the last start winners in the race.
What you tend to find is a lot of people get drawn in to the “unlucky” horses or the horses “steaming home late” in the lead up races and believe they will be stronger over the 1200m trip on the big day. Winning form can be overlooked too hastily and at times even counted irrelevant for reasons of track or pace bias or being a lower class race. In reality the obvious answer is staring us all in the face.
In the “Modern Era” there have been 11 of the last 18 Slippers who were winners at their start before the big race at a 60% win rate.
2 year old horses tend to find their level pretty quickly. Particularly the horses who are in contention for this style of race, generally they are early “goers” and they find their best early. What this means is that it is not too often that “blowout” type results occur because these horses find it hard to make massive improvement in their 2yo year. So it very much becomes what you see is what you get sort of race.
This is important to know so that you don’t go chasing shadows down rabbit holes looking for things that aren’t there, exposed 2YO form is quite possibly as pure as it gets.
So What Do The Stats Say?
The stats illustrate quite clearly backing last start winners to win the Golden Slipper has been a very profitable play. There have been last start winners win 11 of the last 18 Golden Slippers at an average price of $7.80
With an average of “3.5” last start winners in the final field over those 18 years that equates to a 63 unit outlay (18 x 3.5) for a 85.8 unit return (11 winners at $7.80) or a 22.8 unit profit or 37% profit on turnover!
Its important to point out that there is NO CLEAR angle to be backing big roughies in the Golden Slipper (unless they were last start winners). There have been 3 winners at double figure odds the last 18 years but a net loss.
The key lead in races to be able to win the Golden Slipper are no doubt the Todman (colts) and Riesling Slipper (fillies) with 10 of the last 18 winners finishing top 2 in these key lead up races.
SECRET GOLDEN SLIPPER BETTING STRATEGY
BACK LAST START WINNERS ONLY
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