Reading stats can be an immense task for footy tipping NRL coaches and for punters alike. What makes it even harder is that the stats get updated each round and are dependent on a number of factors when they do. A player, for example needs at least three games in order to determine the rise or drop in their point or cash value. So simply “dropping” in on a stats board from time to time is not a simple way to get the information you need to make an informed decision. Statistical data is really the only accurate, measurable element in a game where personalities, history and emotions play such a major part. So before you simply “follow your gut,” check out this guide to the important footy tipping in the NRL stats that you should be paying attention to. How you interpret those stats, however, is another matter, and you should do more research before you put all your faith in only one category of a team or player’s performance record.
The Running Statistic Is the Best Place to Start
The data that is collected regarding the offensive ability of a team or player is where you want to begin your analysis. When reading statistics, look first to the columns with data for AR (All Runs), ARM (All Run Metres), CM (completions), DH (Dummy Half Runs), K (Kicks), Cn (Conversions) and IP (In Possession). For example, the higher the total number of runs attempted in a game (as indicated in the AR column), the stronger an offence that team is showing. The number in the ARM column can reveal whether that team was successful at all of those running attempts. The two together show a team’s overall effectiveness, which can affect your choice to back them or not for a round or two. All the categories for offensive behaviour should be taken into consideration after that. Kicks and conversions are great signs of a strong team, but they aren’t good indicators of how that team will stack up against a strong defensive team.
Don’t Forget to Start With a Strong Defence
Examine the column data for your team’s MT stat. Missed tackles, as the name implies, indicates how often the defensive line was able to (or not able to) protect against an attack. A higher number can reveal a weak defence which, when put against another team’s higher run attempts can give you a picture of what may shape up during the game. When a team that has a moderate offence faces a strong defensive team, the odds favour the defending team. This is a stat that can greatly increase your chances of backing the right team.
Start Building Your Database in the Off-season
It may seem premature to start collecting data in the off-season, but valuable information can be determined during the training session. Injuries and trends show themselves early every year. It’s always a wise idea to check in on the running and point stats of key players before the season begins. Trends can indicate who is going to be running hot in the first few rounds. You can then use updated, weekly reports to predict the longevity of such trends. This leads to next point, which is to keep track of your ongoing data yourself on a spreadsheet or with accounting software. By tracking the round-to-round shifts in data, you’ll be able to quickly determine if a particular player is “falling off,” perhaps due to an undisclosed injury. This can quicken your response time to trading that player from your tipping team or adjust your betting commitment according to the recent developing trend.
Using Stats to Determine Your Choices
Over the many rounds, you’ll start to notice patterns. The numbers indicate each team or player’s strengths and weaknesses, which can translate into your ability to predict the outcome of the match. When looking at a particular matchup between two teams, examine the history of their bouts in their win/loss column. If history has favoured one team over the other in a higher percentage, odds are they are going to stay true to the pattern.
Playing by the numbers is much like painting by numbers. While you may have more consistency with regards to your tipping and betting prowess, you are unlikely to “hit it big” this way. Don’t simply allow numbers to dictate your decisions, but do let the numbers inform them. It is far more exciting and educational to use your own intuition in addition to the stats. After all, the game is far more interesting than mere numbers can indicate.
