Brisbane Racing – Back the Favourites or Not?
Brisbane Racing Tips Saturday – last week
Subscribers to our Brisbane Racing Tips had some questions about how to play our Saturday Racing Tips from Doomben last week. There were a number of short priced favourites in the Saturday Brisbane Racing Tips form sheet. Our Expert Brisbane Racing Tips analyst Blaazing Ben Perkins is in sparkling form with 18 winners in the last 3 meetings. And with the Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival just around the corner it is a great time to provide analysis on last weeks event. Last Saturday Brisbane Racing Tips favourites results are as follows:
Race 2 N4 Populist our rated price $2.40 starting price $1.85 (2nd)
Race 3 N1 Tumbler Ridge our rated price $2 starting price $1.95 (2nd to our second select Starosa at $8 win)
Race 4 N2 Angus the Black our rated price $2.70 starting price $1.65 (WON heavily backed into $1.65)
Race 5 N2 Get Stuck our rated price $2.10 starting price $1.65 (3rd)
Race 6 N14 Niedorp our rated price $2.60 starting price $1.30 (WON heavily backed $1.30)
Race 7 N7 The Move our rated price $3.40 starting price $2.30 (2nd winner was third select Bold Move won $8.00)
Race 9 N10 Scathing our rate price $4.80 starting price $2.30 (WON heavily supported)
Saturday Racing Tips – back the favs or not
This question is should we or should we back the top select favourite if it is under our rated price? There is a bit to unpack in this question firstly we have to understand what the “rated price” means and how that rated price is important in regards to investing, secondly we have understand what the “market price” is and what that means along with how that “market price” is relevant to our ability to invest or not, and lastly we probably have to understand ourselves and what we are wanting to get out of our investing whether it’s the thrill of backing a winner or the ability to give ourselves the best chance to profit!!
Brisbane Racing tips favourites – last week rated prices
Before we get stuck into our rated price its first important to understand what a horses price actually means. Essentially the price of a horse is a direct reflection of a horse percentage chance to win the race.
For example on Saturday Blaazing Ben Perkins had allocated Race 2 N 4 Populist a $2.40 favourite to win, this price is actually its percentage chance to win the race when you divide 100 by the price so in this example
Race 2 N Populist chance as rated by Ben to win is 100 divided by 2.4 (ie $2.40) = 41.6% chance to win the race. The remaining 58.4% would be redirected across Ben’s market to indicate the chances of other horses to win the race.
What is interesting to note here is that Ben has clearly rated this horse the top pick. However it is still only 41.6% chance to WIN meaning its also 58.4% chance to LOSE so in Bens market even this top rated horse will still lose over half of the time.
Racing Tips – what is a Market Price?
The “Market Price” is the percentage chance the MARKET has given the horse to win. In the above example the market had Populist a $1.85 chance to win so what they were saying is that it was (100/1.85=54%) a 54% chance to win or a 46% chance to lose, so the opinion of the market had it rated a better chance to win than our Expert Brisbane Racing Tips Blaazing Ben. As it turns out the horse ran 2nd so you could argue that Ben was right and the Market was wrong however its only over many races that you can show this to be true.
Racing Tips – How to Think About Pricing
In our experience there are two ways you must think about price.
a. First is to understand that a horses price is it’s percentage chance given to the horse to win the race so again 100 divided by the price is the chance given to that horse to win.
b. Secondly you must not look at the race as a “one off” event (even though it is many people find this hard). It must always be looked at through the lens of “if this race was run 100 times” the reason for this is there are many variables that are at play when every race is run. So on any given day the jockeys performance, bad luck in running, the horse having a setback during the week, track conditions, track bias, speed bias all are at play every time a race is run.
Given that we don’t have a crystal ball the best we can do is assess a horses chance on historical data and marry that up with our expectation of the performance it can produce on that day, from there it is up to the variance at play to determine the outcome.
Racing Tips – back favourites under the rated price?
Well the answer is yes AND no and it really depends on what you are looking to get from our Saturday Racing Tips service so let us explain.
If you are looking to give yourself the best chance of being a long term winner then NO you should not back a favourite when its under our rated price. In fact you should not back any horse that is under our rated price as that is where the edge to win lays.
However if you prefer to back our top rated chances in each race you will be a chance to back more winners yet in a funny paradox less chance of making a profit.
Brisbane Racing Tips – Favourites results Doomben
To make this a little clearer lets see how Saturday would’ve played out if you backed the favs under our rated price and lets use a $10 stake as the guide.
Race 2 N4 Populist our rated price $2.40 starting price $1.85
$10 on at $1.85 horse ran second return of $0 for a $10 loss
Race 3 N1 Tumbler Ridge our rated price $2 starting price $1.95
$10 on at $1.95 horse ran 2nd return of $0 for a $10 loss
Race 4 N2 Angus the Black our rated price $2.70 starting price $1.65
$10 on at $1.65 horse won return of $16.50 or a $6.50 profit
Race 5 N2 Get Stuck our rated price $2.10 starting price $1.65
$10 on at $1.65 the horse ran 3rd a return of $0 for a $10 loss
Race 6 N14 Niedorp our rated price $2.60 starting price $1.30
$10 on at $1.30 horse won return of $13.00 or a $3 profit
Race 7 N7 The Move our rated price $3.40 starting price $2.30
$10 on at $2.30 the horse ran 3rd a return of $0 for a $10 loss
Race 9 N10 Scathing our rate price $4.80 starting price $2.30
$10 on at $2.30 the horse won return of $23 for a $13 profit
So if you had of backed the favourites under our rated price you would have invested $70 for a return of $52.50 a loss of $17.50, however you would have had the “fun” of cheering home 3 winners in the process.
For some the enjoyment of cheering home 3 winners is worth paying the $17.50 for. However if you had not backed the favourites under our rated price you would not have backed the 3 winners but you would be $17.50 better off in the process its all about what are you looking to get from the service.
Betting Racing Tips Favourites – Other Options
There is most definitely other ways to attack the issue around Favs that are under our rated price.
Quinellas and Trifectas –
One is to work the favourite into a Quinella or Trifecta within the same race. There were 2 nice results if you took this strategy in races 3 and 7. In race 3 our second select Starosa won at $8 paying $9.80 with Tumbler Ridge. In race 7 Bold Style our third select won at $8.80 with the quinella with the fav paying $6.40. The quinella strategy here gets you a profitable return.
Over rated price value chances –
Another is to back the selections that are outside the favs but over our rated prices. In this case it would have seen you back the two above horses Starosa $8 and Bold Style $8.80 in a profitable result.
Quaddies and Trebles –
Another is to put them into the Quadrella, Early Quadrella or treble, wherever the particular race is located. Despite the horse being under the rated price in that particular race it is still possible that over 3 or 4 legs the other winners may balance out this differential making it a positive expectation overall. By putting these horses into the Quadrellas etc you are still essentially “backing” the horse to win so you get the same thrill as backing and get to cheer it home and you also give yourself a better opportunity of a positive net return should the other legs fall your way.
In summary if you are backing horses under our rated price you are destined to lose money in the long run as variance plays out. However if you are more about the thrill of backing the “winner” then yes backing our top rated selection favourite even if under the odds will give you a chance to achieve that regardless of price. Being armed with this information the final decision very obviously comes down to how you wish to enjoy our product and very much comes down to your preference whether it be profit/fun.
Hope this helps and lets look forward to an enjoyable Brisbane Racing Tips Winter Carnival on now only $99 for 3 months of Brisbane Racing Tips
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