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AFL Richmond v Carlton


There are no firm bets for AFL Betting Tips Round 1 as our HBM Human Behaviour Model method of assessing team performance to result in bets requires at least 1 week of data. So we provide overviews of each game and may apply an assessment that is not a firm bet as such. We will release the games overviews on the morning of each game, however from week 2 all overviews and tips will be provided on Thursday prior the weekend of games. Richmond Tigers play the Carlton Blues in AFL season opener Round 1 at the MCG.


THURSDAY MARCH 18th  – Season Opener

The season gets underway with the traditional Thursday night match up between the Tigers and the Blues. Richmond totally have the wood over the Blues in these first round clashes winning the last 6 in a row at an average of 5 goals. Richmond are fresh off another flag and whether they are ready to roll after such a short break is questionable. They certainly looked solid enough in the pre season game against the Pies but this game had ZERO defensive action.

This is the year Carlton need to start getting better and were smashed by the Saints in the pre season game. The jury is well and truly out on if they are tracking in the right direction. Historically Carlton get away to a poor start in this season opener. Their ability to start this game well goes a long way to determining the Blues chances.

We go back to the Elimination Final of 2013 since Carlton last beat Richmond and they have played 10 times since. In those 10 wins in a row Richmond has kicked over 100 points 4 times. The closest margin was 9 points back in 2016. Five of those 10 games Carlton has kicked only average 55 points per game so scoring is a huge issue for them.

The line here is -18.5 Richmond and $1.35 win and it is hard to see Richmond not winning here and the total game score market is 170.5 points.