AFL ROUND 6 PREVIEWS AND TIPS
FRIDAY 23rd APRIL
GWS GIANTS VS WESTERN BULLDOGS (MANUKA OVAL)
A rivalry that dates back to the 2016 Prelim these two sides have a strong dislike for each other and it promises to be a Friday night classic in Canberra. Apart from last year recent games have not been close, in fact they have been blowouts. Notably of recent head to head clashes the winning team has kicked well north of 100+ points.
The Bulldogs have been the story of 2021 they have won 5 in a row and sit on top of the AFL ladder. The Giants looked on life support before they rallied strongly in the last quarter to bring up their second win of the year and keep the season alive. The Bulldogs are on a 3 game peak performance run covering the line strongly. The Giants themselves have bucked expectations with a double peak performance play. A fourth straight cover for the Bulldogs is not easy to do lending this game a small bet on the Giants and they do have a 3-2 head to head record in the last 5 games. This game is at Manuka where GWS have won the most recent versus Bulldogs, one by 61 points and the other by 2 points.
SATURDAY 24th APRIL
GEELONG VS WEST COAST (GMHBA)
This is a very interesting match. Geelong has yet to get their season going with any real purpose and they now lose Dangerfield for an extended period. The fact is historically the Eagles just don’t travel well to Geelong an average losing margin of 10 goals in last 3 games at Geelong. The big concern for the Eagles is their lack of midfield drive, low inside 50’s the last couple of weeks leaves them exposed. West Coast is coming of a peak effort against the Pies and can be vulnerable to a dip against the Cats in Geelong. No doubt a key part to this game will be how the Geelong defence can quell the tall timber that continues to keep the Eagles in the game. It looks like the Cats will unveil the big recruit Jeremey Cameron giving them some potent scoring power. It is 3 all head to head the last 6 games. Total game scores have been an average 150 points per game and we go back to 2016 for a 202 point total game score in Geelong.
GOLD COAST VS SYDNEY (METRICON STADIUM)
Both of theses sides coming off losses, Sydney let one get away after leading by 21 points early in the final term they folded up. After a couple of strong weeks with honourable losses the Suns were totally ripped apart by the rampaging Bulldogs. Gold Coast smacked Sydney in the corresponding game last year and has won 2 of the last 4 head to head. They find themselves undermanned and Sydney have Buddy out but with the right effort they can make a game of it. It’s a big game for Sydney to respond, they had won 4 in a row and they need to get back on the bike quickly. Gold Coast has played Sydney at the SCG for the last 4 head to heads so Gold Coast sees Sydney on the Coast for the first time since 2016.
CARLTON VS BRISBANE (MARVEL)
Brisbane got their mojo back with a super tough contested style in the torrential conditions in Queensland. This will be a very different game under the roof at Marvel. Carlton slipped back to old ways last week and carried too many passengers. If they are to make a fist of this they need even distribution of effort and impact to push the Lions who have hit some form. Brisbane has dominated recent head to head clashes winning 4 of the last 5. That said they have all been at the Gabba but the one recent Carlton was at Marvel where we are here. Games have generally been higher scores between the two and we may well get that here. With Brisbane being off a strong peak effort it opens the door for the Blues who do have a habit of bouncing back after a loss. They only lost 2 games in a row twice last year.
MELBOURNE VS RICHMOND (MCG)
This is the game of the round and a big test for the Demons. They are flying high unbeaten winning the opening 5 games of the year and are on an unprecedented 5 game peak run. They showed some real maturity to steady and push hard to get clear of the Hawks late but the Tigers supply the ultimate test. Richmond themselves bounced back with a peak effort after 2 losses and look back on track. Richmond has won the last 5 head to head and we go back to 2016 for a 129-96 high scoring Melbourne win. The recent margins between the two has been about 5 goals per game the closest being 13 points. Total game scores have not been overly high, in the range of 145 points per game. What Richmond has been able to do is negate Melbourne scoring, of which this year has been the Demons strength. You sense the Demons are exposed for some type of trough effort after the sustained peak run. Richmond simply have the wood on the Melbourne winning the last 5 clashes one clash to look forward to is the battle between the games best player in Dusty against the rising start Petracca.
FREMANTLE VS NORTH MELBOURNE (OPTUS STADIUM)
The Dockers return home after a nice away win against the Crows, this pushed them into a 2 game peak performance run. North Melbourne are struggling however their last 2 have seemed somewhat more competitive despite the beaten margin being combined 71 points. Fremantle has won 4 of the last 5 head to head and 3 of those has been in Perth. North has won a recent game versus Fremantle in Perth 86-58. Recent total game scores have been in a broad range of 129-233 points per game. Two of the last five games have been 4 and 5 point margins.North Melbourne has yet to win this year but the signs are there that they can bring some type of peak performance to give them a chance at a line cover after covering against the Cats last week. The Dockers are teetering on a trough effort using our human behaviour model. We will take the Kangaroos here on a small bet given the Dockers double peak performance.
SUNDAY 25th APRIL
HAWTHORN VS ADELAIDE (UNIVERSITY TASMANIA OVAL)
These sides have played here 4 times in Tassie for a 3-1 split Hawthorn. The Hawks average a 6 goal wining margin against the Crows here. Adelaide let one slip last week leading strongly at half time before Freo got the better of them in the second half and wilted. Hawthorn were totally torched in the final term after giving 3 quarters of good footy against Melbourne, they conceded 8 of the last 9 goals for a big loss. The Crows had a strong win over the Hawks last year (35 points) but Hawthorn had won the 3 games prior. Recent total game scores of recent times has seen a range of 120-210 points per game. The venue could have a big bearing in this game and may swing it in the Hawks favour.
COLLINGWOOD VS ESSENDON (MCG)
The classic Anzac Day battle with two sides right up against it and maybe that is the beauty to why these two clubs continually get this prime contest date. Collingwood have been one of the disappointments of the season so far they sit 1-4 and injury ravaged and its hard to see how they get out of this hole, they have no scoring power! Essendon on the other hand are up and down, they have high scoring potency but defensively still find themselves vulnerable. This classic Anzac day battle is generally seen as a 50-50 contest, with both sides coming off losses they are sure to be breathing fire and it must be a last man standing game. Essendon won last year but prior it was 4 in a row for Collingwood in head to head clashes. Total game scores between the two are generally low, average 140 points per game. Both come off trough performances for both these teams.
PORT ADELAIDE VS ST KILDA (ADELAIDE OVAL)
St Kilda finally stopped an 8-0 run head to head when they defeated the Power last year. It was one of the Saints more inspiring wins chalking up their first win at the Adelaide Oval. The problem this season is what St Kilda are we going to get? They have been all over the place smacked by big margins in 2 of the last 3 weeks and a nice win over the Eagles in between that. Port Adelaide are on a nice peak performance effort travelling to Melbourne undermanned and taking care of the Blues and that was after a tough win over the defending premiers. Its simply time for St Kilda to turn up and be counted they absolutely have the talent when they play as a team. They get an opportunity for a peak effort here away from home, they are capable of so much more than what we have seen.
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