AFL Betting Tips Finals 2020 – The top 4 remain

Well the best 4 teams all year will play off in the AFL Betting Tips Preliminary Finals on the weekend. From an AFL Betting Tips Grand Final perspective we have a look at the 4 teams in question prior to previewing the AFL Finals 2020:

1. PORT ADELAIDE
Finished top, have been top all year and responded very well when challenged in the 1st Qualifying Final. They take on Richmond who they did beat earlier in the year. Admittedly the Tigers were undermanned, but Ports final half dominance was very telling. It’s a bit romantic that Port in their 150th year would win the AFL Premiership. They have what it takes, are ranked number 2 offence and number 1 defence in the AFL. Importantly, they get their chance in a home Preliminary Final at Adelaide Oval.

2. BRISBANE
The Lions overcame the big question mark on them this year, could they win a final after going out in straight sets last year. They stood up in the 2nd AFL Qualifying Final and took last years Premiers to the cleaners. It was as intense a final as you could get and they stood up when it counted. They take on Geelong who destroyed a Collingwood outfit but they were cooked. Brisbane and Geelong have had classic contests in recent times and this shapes to be another. The home ground advantage is significant of course for Brisbane as it will be Grand Final day but at the “Gabbatoir” if they get there.

3. RICHMOND
The defending premiers are coming, they were workmanlike disposing of the Saints put on a clinic and they now face Port Adelaide in Adelaide. This is a big ask for Richmond, however with the two tall forwards (Lynch and Riewoldt) they may like their chances with Ports smaller defence. The Tigers who have been up for 4 years may find their time is done but they do carry the experience and a game style that is hard to counter if they are on. However the weeks bye does favour Port.

4. GEELONG
Historically a “soft” finals win doesn’t bode well for the winning side the following week. Geelong had as bruise free a final as you could get against the Pies who had spent their tickets the week earlier. The cloud of losing 3 Preliminary Finals in the last 4 years will weigh heavily on Geelong and Chris Scott. That said, Geelong with Dangerfield a man on a mission, may use that as steely resolve but it does favour Brisbane.

AFL Betting Tips – Grand Final where is the Betting Value?

The betting market is as follows:
Brisbane $3.40
Port Adelaide $4
Richmond $4.25
Geelong $4.50

The Prelim Finals Betting Odds are as follows:
Port $1.90 and Richmond $1.90
Brisbane $1.72 Geelong $2.10

As it stands Brisbane are value at 3.40 for flag. Should they win their Prelim Final they will be at the most $1.90 (equal fav) to win the Grand Final in their own backyard so Prelim x Grand final = $1.72 x $1.9 = $3.26 so the $3.40 is overs. Of course they could start a whole lot shorter in the GF to bringing even more value.

Although Port Adelaide is fav to play off in the Grand Final the $4.25 price Richmond to the flag is mathematically an “over”. They are equal fav with Port Adelaide to win the Prelim but 3rd line of betting for flag. It’s a small edge but an edge all the same.

One thing does look certain, whoever you like for the flag BACK THEM NOW. The bookies are offering basically a FREE service right now on the Grand Final and here is how:
Brisbane $3.40 (29.4% chance)
Port Adelaide $4 (25% chance)
Richmond $4.25 (23.5% chance)
Geelong $4.50 (22.2% chance)

This is a total of 100.1% this means the margin for the Bookie is 0.1% basically zero. So effectively they are rolling the dice they have no idea which way it should be framed so they are letting the public do that for them, you NEVER see this sort of percentage being offered. SO in short although historically it has been advantageous to take the team to win the Prelim and “all up” that money on the Grand Final next week, there is no doubt that taking the Premiership price now is the best result you can get.