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The Professor’s AFL Mid Season Update

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The Professors AFL Mid Season Update

AFL Footy results - round 8 tips

We have had some terrific feedback from our clients in relation to what they are after with our Footy tipping service and overwhelmingly it has been to include “more tips” so we will be doing that moving forward, really pinpointing some nice value in other areas apart from “line only” betting.

YOU ALSO NEED TO HEAR THIS:
We are in unprecedented territory at the moment when it comes to betting on AFL Footy. My feeling is that THIS iS A GOOD THING FOR US because I believe a “correction” is on it’s way, the funny thing about this anomaly is that it also occurred in the 1st half of the NFL season last year and had “corrected” by season’s end but I will get to what I am noticing shortly. I was only speaking to my mate from a betting agency the other day(I have no personal ties with them apart from betting with them, it is purely a relationship I have as I am a “respected” client) and he told me they were having a “tough” time of it with the AFL (losing 7 figures) which as strange as it may sound was music to my ears because a professional punters success normally runs parallel to the bookies success meaning that we are generally both laying the undervalue favourites and getting on some nice value roughies. So generally speaking we make money by being on the opposite side of the “popular view” it’s pure market dynamics.

SITUATIONAL POSITION:
However there is a situation playing out right now that we have not seen before and that dynamic is FAVOURITES winning!To give you an indication of the stark difference in the last few years here are some brief numbers to round 10:

2010-80 matches 49 favourites win at a 61.2% ratio
2011-80 matches 52 favourites win at a 65% ratio (1st year gold coast so increase expected)
2012-90 matches 61 favourites win at a 67% ratio (1st year GWS so increase expected)
2013-90 matches 70 favourites win at a staggering 77.7%ratio (reason?)

We are quite seriously in unprecedented territory with these sort of numbers-it’s just crazy!!!

However you have to ask yourself why? It is an interesting question which I have given some thought by no means have i come up with the answers but i thought would share my views.

The fixture we have had has a lot of one sided matches programmed into the 1st half of the year as the AFL really like to build the interest in the 2nd half of the year when all the good sides generally play each other as do the poor sides getting the interest at fever pitch before the finals. Secondly has the expansion to 18 teams drastically reduced the pool of talent so much that those who already “had” the talent are creating a bigger gap between themselves and those “trying to get the talent” meaning they are a far superior team then perhaps would have been the case if the “status quo” had remained. This can also be related to sides who were “forced” to let go of senior talent to help the new franchises. Thirdly is the financial gap between the “haves and the have nots” playing out to a larger degree than ever before ON the field (coaching staff, physios, medical staff, sports science staff, facilities,etc) giving the top clubs(favs) a big advantage. Finally, has the professional mental development of players enabled them to utilize their mind power to influence their performance more so than ever before, particularly for senior groups where their belief and focus enable them to back up week after week without varying level of performance?

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN:
They are just a few of my thoughts on the possible, in truth my real BELIEF is that it is mostly random in nature (as the NFL was last year) and we will be seeing a correction on this ratio in the second half of the year particularly given that Bookies are not in the business of giving away money and I see them radically adjusting favorites lines to drag some money back.

The reason this is good for you is that we will be able to identify some TOP VALUE plays in the second half of the year that the “public money” will have no idea at all about giving us a nice edge…and u know what that means $$$$$$$$$.

It’s time to get with the Professor for the educated information to bring you the winners for the second half of the AFL year…have you heard anyone else talking about this “anomaly” ??? No for the simple reason they focus their attention in the “wrong” areas.

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The rest of the year including finals…but hurry this offer will not last

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