GEELONG VS SYDNEY MCG, MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA
About the Geelong Cats
It all comes down to this on the last Saturday in September and the Grand Final is back home at the MCG for the first time in 3 years! Geelong took a while to get going this year. They threw the old game plan out the window the slow move from half back to half forward was replaced with a desire to be attacking and drive to the forward 50 with pace and flair. This has allowed the tall timber of Hawkins and Cameron to get the job done with Stengle at their feet. It took 9 or 10 rounds to find their feet but here they are 15 straight wins looking to find that 1 extra victory for the AFL Premership. It should be a great AFL betting contest and our AFL tips are at the bottom of page.
About the Sydney Swans
Sydney themselves are at their top as well having won 9 in a row and has a young group and what coach Longmire has been able to do in a short space of time is quite extraordinary. The level the young talent has developed to speaks volumes about the Sydney way. You have to be hard you have to be tough and you have to be team to get a gig at this joint and that is what will stand them in good stead for Saturday.
The Prelim Toughness Factor
Cats are the favs here a -9.5 headstart and the pressure is certain to be on them however the last 10 years of Grand Finals is a 5-5 split between roughie and fav so it gives us no real lead. Geelong is coming in here off an “easy” Prelim win and history says this is NOT the preferred way. Although there is a theory that they should be fresher history shows the tougher Prelim has greater success. Sydney had to fight for their life on the weekend that stands them in good stead on the “Prelim Toughness” factor.
In contrast there is a theory that you have to have “been there and lost” to come back and win again, whilst this is not entirely true there does seem to be an element around failure that supports this view when the side next gets to the big dance-Geelong were there to win it and failed in 2020-perhaps that’s the one they had to lose to win here?
Geelong v Sydney History
These two last played each other at the Grand Final venue the MCG in 2017 in a semi final for a Geelong 98-39 win. That was the last “blow out game” and since margins between the two have generally been close. Recent games have seen margins in the range of 2-30 points that sits at an average of 16.5 points per game. So it is hard to see a blow out game here and we have total game points at a 150-160 point range with a 155 mid point. The bookies have it at 163.5 so we will take the UNDER total game points. We see both teams kicking total points in the 70-80 point range.
This year they played at the SCG head to head with a 30 point Swans win 107-77. Four of the last seven head to heads have been at the SCG whilst two games at Geelong and one at Metricon during the COVID year of 2020. Interesting both teams have been able to defeat each other away from home and this happened in 2018 when both won away games against each other and Geelong a two point win at the SCG in 2019.
The highest score both side have kicked against each other of recent times is ironically 107 points and the low scores 59 for Sydney and 69 Geelong. So both teams have been able to score relatively freely but not over the top. This years total points of 191 is the recent combined game points high and the low is 2018 in a 71-59 Geelong win.
AFL Grand Final Summary
When its all said and done we think this shapes to be a great Grand Final there are a multitude of factors that will affect the outcome a lot of which cannot possibly be accurately calculated. However our Human Behaviour Model has shown time and time again that the Human Element is VERY MUCH predictable and we are with the Swans here. Geelong come in off a “peak performance” Prelim win smashing the Lions they looked invincible and everything went right but as we know the bookies tend to over adjust for the high octane offensive teams. The line has already shifted from -8.5 to -10.5 just showing the support is with the Cats-we ALWAYS like to be on the opposite side.
This game feels a bit like 2008, Geelong seen as the top dog taking on a young Hawthorn team. We know how that turned out and there is an air of that about this game and perhaps the Youth of the Swans may deliver the knockout blow to the aging Cats. That said Geelong has been so close so many times in the last decade that the sentimentalists may say its “about their time”.
Our Grand Final Tip
Our tip is Sydney we think it will be a classic Grand Final with two teams made of the right stuff-the Swans would’ve learnt a lot out of last weeks match (conceding the last 5 scoring shots of game-3 of them goals) and it looks like going right down to the wire.
Sydney 1 unit line +10.5 and .5 unit Win $2.50
Total Game Points .5 unit UNDER 164.5
