AFL ROUND 5 GATHER ROUND
Well here it is the “inaugural” GATHER ROUND ADELAIDE Round 5 AFL betting!! It’s a name that seemed a bit plain when it was announced but it has built some momentum and everything is pointing to the first one being a big success. No doubt the experience of hubs in recent years gave way to a different thought process as to how a round of footy could look and to make a festival of footy in one location could turn out to be a bonanza. There is no doubt we have some trepidation around our selection process as we have NEVER seen this style of thing before. All clubs in one jurisdiction mostly at neutral venues BUT that said our HBM MODEL stood up over the COVID period and that gives us nice confidence here.
ADELAIDE CROWS VS CARLTON BLUES
THURSDAY NIGHT APRIL 13TH – ADELAIDE OVAL
What a game to start the inaugural “Gather Round” at Adelaide Oval Thursday night AFL Round 5. Both sides come into this match choc full of confidence. Adelaide are on a 2 game “SIGNIFICANT PEAK” run with back to back wins against Port Adelaide and Fremantle. They come here off a 5 day break but they have had one month at home AND that will certainly help!!
Carlton have started the season on FIRE yet to lose (draw and 3 wins). They are on a STUNNING 4 GAME PEAK PERFORMANCE RUN and had the game won a long way out against the Kangaroos giving up some points late in junk time.
There was a MASSIVE pre game blowout in the market from -16.5 Carlton to -25.5 last week. This HEAVY adjustment was overplayed and our model had a truer line of Carlton -20.5 hence our call on a Carlton peak effort even though in some markets the Kangaroos covered.
Defense is what is going to win this game, Adelaide have hit the scoreboard the last couple of weeks (117 and 111) and Carlton themselves 107 points last week. HOWEVER both sides are capable of giving up a run of goals so keeping pressure on the whole game will be key.
Its 3-2 Carlton head to head the last 5 games and only 1 of those has been at Adelaide Oval where we are here that was last year a 84-55 Crows win. Only 1 team has kicked 100+ and we have total points at the lower end of the range at 150 points with the bookies at 172.5
Carlton on paper has superior top end talent and Adelaide have some nice young talent coming through but their best footy is when they have a complete effort from the team. Both teams in nice form and off peak runs but a small bet Adelaide is warranted here. With Carlton being on a 4 game peak run is close to as good as it gets at AFL level. They are closer to their next “trough” effort and although Adelaide off 2 “significant peak” wins the fact remains Carlton struggle being a road fav (they have that profile here). In fact in their encounter here last year Carlton started a -14.5 fav and lost by 29 points, small bet Adelaide
BET Adelaide 1 unit WIN $1.95
Total Game Points .5 unit UNDER 173.5
