Carlton versus Melbourne match Preview
Action Saturday night from the MCG in the AFL Carlton versus Melbourne. Carlton is in a world of pain and each week just goes from worse to worse. Surely all and sundry can see the mood at this club is so bad. You just know there will be changes season end, from the top down (starting with the coach). There is no other way and this sorry state of an ex power club is just nothing like that anymore. They are on a 4 game trough run, 3 of them significant. The only saving grace the last trough was a narrow one (by virtue of the spread being so large). Melbourne is on a 2 game peak run after a season of inconsistency filled with peak-trough sequence. Last week was a win over North the week prior a peak loss to Adelaide.
Head to Head analysis
Head to head the most significant area here is the LOW total game points at 134.2 points per game the last 5 head to heads. This would be amongst the lowest in the AFL. There is NO recent game where a team has kicked 100+ points and total game points in a tight range of 105-153 points per game. We get an average points for over recent times for Carlton 65.6 and Melbourne 68.6 points per game. Margins between the two have been super tight and we get average 5.4 points per game over the last 5 head to heads in a range of 1 to 15 points.
Betting analysis
This is the lowest scoring, tightest margin contest in the AFL and Carlton gets it chance to bounce here on the back of a 4 game trough run.
CARLTON 2 units +11.5 and 1 unit win $2.60
TOTAL GAME POINTS 1 unit UNDER 163.5
TOTAL GAME POINTS CARLTON .5 unit UNDER 75.5
TOTAL GAME POINTS MELBOURNE .5 unit UNDER 86.5
TOTAL POINTS RANGE .25 unit 61-75 CARLTON $3.30 AND MELBOURNE $4.40
MARGIN 1-19 POINTS .25 unit CARLTON $4.80 and MELBOURNE $4.00
SUPER MARGIN 1-9 points .25 unit CARLTON $8.80 and MELBOURNE $7.80
