AFL BETTING TIPS ROUND 7 GAMES

We head to AFL Betting Tips round 7 with a number of big games and a Friday night beauty with last years premiers and the unbeaten Bulldogs. We look to a number of bounce teams off losses under our HBM Human Behaviour Model and some nice value AFL Bets as part of this weekends games. We have 2 BEST BETS, a Strong Bet and three 1.5 stakes Bets for the weekend.
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AFL FRIDAY NIGHT FRIDAY 30TH APRIL

RICHMOND VS WESTERN BULLDOGS (MCG)

A big game this is for the second week in a row the reigning premier takes on a contender after being touched up the unbeaten Melbourne last week. The Tigers take on the other unbeaten side in the Bulldogs and do so without Dusty who is out because of concussion and is on to NZ to see his Dad!

Remarkably given Richmond’s recent dominance of the competition the Bulldogs are a side they have struggled against with a 2-4 win/loss the last 6 games. That said the Bulldogs are on an almost unprecedented 4 game peak performance run and with Richmond looking to bounce off a trough performance the ability of the Dogs to maintain this elevated level will come into question. It was really only one quarter of footy that saw them taking care of the Giants and it was a super 9 goal to 1 Q4 by the Dogs.

The average score total game in recent times between the two is 150-160 points per game so not especially high scoring. The average margin between the two in four of the last six games is 9 points per game in a range of 3-19 points so most games have been tight. It is a big peak run by the Dogs and we take the Tigers to bounce off their two recent losses on the back of the Bulldogs peak run.
Richmond BEST BET 2 unit +11.5 and 1 unit win $2.60

AFL GAMES SATURDAY 1st  MAY

COLLINGWOOD VS GOLD COAST (MCG)

Collingwood are a bit of a rabble but if they think its bad now they wont know what hit them if they drop this to the Suns. Collingwood are off a hard tough clash in the Anzac Day match and whilst that can sometimes lead to a slump the week after generally its only for the winner. The Suns are coming through a nice win at home a good peak performance 40 point win over the more fancied Swans. However now they head to the home of footy to take on a Collingwood that are hungry. Certainly we are impressed by that Gold Coast win but it was a massive peak.

The Pies have the wood on the Suns winning the last 6 encounters and we go back to 2013 for the only Suns win over Collingwood. In doing so, Collingwood has kicked over 103+ points in four of the last six games, however a big query for Collingwood 2021 is how they score. That said the Suns will have their work cut out after a nice win our modelling has the Pies to bounce on the back of the Suns peak.
Collingwood 1 unit win $1.50 and .5 unit -11.5

ADELAIDE VS GWS GIANTS (ADELAIDE OVAL)

Adelaide holds a 4-2 split in the win-loss the last 6 games between these sides. The Crows are coming off a “peak” effort in defeat by nicely covering the line against the Hawks. The Crows will be questioning how they actually let that slip and its fair to say their 16 goals 3 (85% efficiency on goal) is most likely to revert a bit more to the norm. Couple that with the Giants strong effort for 3 quarters against the league leaders and you can very much make a case for the Giants here. You would also see it highly unlikely that Riley Thilthorpe would reproduce the “perfect” game he did on debut with 5 goals yet another reason why the scoring potency of Adelaide may be a bit off kilter with the line set. The Crows have had a solid start to the season even producing a peak effort in defeat but the Giants capable of a spike.

Interesting here is GWS has played 5 of the last 6 head to head clashes over the last 4 years at Adelaide Oval. They will know the ground well! The last four head to head clashes have been relatively tight average margin 17 points per game in a range of 12-21 points. Total game scores a wide range 132 point low to 238 point high over the last 5 games (excluding the COVID year 103 point game). We take the GWS Giants here in a 1 unit bet.
Giants 1 unit +1.5

ST KILDA VS HAWTHORN (MARVEL)

It is difficult to get a read on from a betting perspective here. The Saints are in some pain, they are coming off back to back smashing’s and they wont be feeling to good about themselves but their season is teetering at 2-4. The Hawks have had some “honourable losses” and they were able to turn the tide at the weekend with a come from behind win against the Crows. The Saints are looking to make it 3 wins straight against the Hawks and it is 3-3 head to head the last 6 clashes. Games have bene tight of recent times with 6.5 points per game average margin in 4 of the last 6 games in a range of 3-14 points. Average game score total is in the 160 point range and we have a no bet game here but surely the Saints give an effort here.

BRISBANE VS PORT ADELAIDE (GABBA

Two of last years top 4 sides clash here. Port Adelaide are up and humming but they come up against a bit of a nemesis here. Lachie Neale is a huge out for Brisbane the Brownlow Medallist will be sorely missed. Port Adelaide on the back of an intense win against the Tigers have had a couple of easier games Carlton and the Saints they will need to make sure they are on the rivet early. Brisbane will be full of confidence and take some beating looking for their third straight win this year. Along with the Friday night clash this promises to be one of the games of the round. Brisbane has won the last 3 head to head clashes and Port had won the 3 prior. There was a 5 point margin between the two in 2018 but apart from that games have not been especially close, not blow outs but not close either. Both teams are on double peak performances so neutralise each other from a betting perspective so a no bet game on a tight -3.5 Port line. No bet.

SYDNEY VS GEELONG (SCG)

Are the Cats back is the question and they were back to their dominating best ripping apart the West Cast Eagles and the new recruit Jeremy Cameron slotted in beautifully kicking 3 goals. The Swans started with a 4-0 run but were nabbed in the last minutes by the Giants two weeks ago then a big trough effort being torn apart by the Suns. This young side must show they can rebound from setbacks and they get a lift here at home.

Geelong have won their last four against Sydney and four of the last five with the Sydney win 86-69 in 2018. The last 5 games have been generally tight with the last 5 games average margin 17 points per game in a range of 6-27 points. Total game scores average of recent times are 151 points per game in a range of 137-187 points per game (COVID year was 132 points). Two of the last six head to heads have bene in Sydney and Geelong has won both average margin 20 points. No Buddy is an issue for Sydney but it was a massive training run peak performance for Geelong last week as we look to Sydney to bounce off the last 2 losses.
Sydney 1.5 unit +13.5 and .5 unit win $2.70

AFL GAMES SUNDAY 2nd MAY

NORTH MELBOURNE VS MELBOURNE (BAULDERSTONE ARENA)

North Melbourne has being caught up in the COVID fiasco in Perth but is free to go ahead with its game in Tassie versus Melbourne. The Demons have been on an unbelievable 6 game peak performance cover run and we have never seen anything like it. When you combine that with North Melbourne being on 5 out of 6 trough performance there is no doubt there could be an angle here under our modelling. Melbourne are off a peak build up game as well after defeating the reigning premiers in the Anzac Eve clash they will find motivation tough to get up again for the cellar dwellers. Add to that there is ZERO expectation on the Roos.

North has won 4 of the last 6 head to head against Melbourne and that includes winning the last 3 games against Melbourne in Tassie. There has been 3 of the last 6 games margin under 14 points with an average margin of 7 points per game so games have been tight. North has won all 3 of these games in Tassie and this includes a whopping 136-131 shoot out in 2016. We get the big line here on North and we take it.
North Melbourne BEST BET 3 units +57.5 and .5 unit win $15

ESSENDON VS CARLTON (MCG)

Essendon is coming off a nice peak performance play and this in general is even more relevant in a marquee type game like Anzac Day. The winner of this game can certainly be open to a letdown off such a build up and a win. Carlton although not getting it done have been far from the worst side this year they have had a tough draw early with losses to Richmond, Brisbane and Port Adelaide and the margins haven’t been massive. Essendon by their very nature have been a very up and down team, they can at times pick and choose when to bring effort. Carlton will be under the blowtorch with just 2 wins for the year they can bring an energy required. We have seen tight contests between the two of recent times with an average 12 points per game over 5 of the last 6 head to head clashes in a range of 1-24 points. The 1 point game was last years COVID year low scoring 52-51 Carlton win. It is 3 game a piece over the last 6 head to head clashes. Total game scores have generally been on the low side average 143 points over the last 6 games. We will take Carlton here in a small bet on the back of the Essendon peak last week.
Carlton 1 unit win $1.70 and .5 unit -6.5

WEST COAST VS FREMANTLE (OPTUS STADIUM)

The Dockers are on the charge winning 3 games in a row and a nice 3 game peak performance run however that can all come to a halt quickly in the “Western Derby”. The Dockers simply have been unable to bring what is required in these games they have lost the last 10 derby’s in quite an extraordinary run in what many consider 50/50 great rivalry contest.

The Eagles will be looking for a big redemption game after a thumping and total embarrassment at the hands of Geelong. When your senior coach calls you out as “weak” that hurts and some wrongs need to be righted here for them. No doubt the Dockers are as well prepared to break their Derby duck but the combined weight of a 4 game peak effort versus the bounce back factor of the Eagles is to hard to ignore. Or HBE Human Behaviour Model points fairly and squarely at the West Coast. Of the last 6 head to head games 2 have been under a 13 point margin other than that they have been strong Eagles wins.
West Coast 1.5 unit win $1.70 and 1 unit -4.5