AFL Betting Tips round 20 games

AFL REVIEW ROUND 19 AND PREVIEW ROUND 20 

The poisoned chalice of being eighth place on the AFL Premiership table was handed over again last weekend when Essendon were beaten by GWS. That is four weeks in a row that the 8^th positioned team has got rolled. Good luck GWS this week, yes you guessed it, they are 8^th on the table. Carlton is in the gun again after losing to bottom side North Melbourne. Any talk of Carlton making finals is just folly, they are a club in turmoil. Richmond look shot, Dusty or no Dusty. T hey were beaten up badly by Geelong who find themselves AFL Grand Final favs. Sydney looks the bug improver for 2021 and can consider a likely top 4 finish. Whilst at it, Don Pyke as senior assistant becomes a stronger chance to coach Collingwood or Carlton, more likely Collingwood. West Coast looked to have cemented 7^th place with an unconvincing win at home over St Kilda.  That leaves 8^th place open with 5 teams vying for it. At the foot of the table North’s win leaves a race between Collingwood, North and Hawthorn for the AFL wooden spoon. Now wouldn’t that look good on Clarko’s CV. 
 

AFL Betting Tips round 20 Bets
Essendon 2 units +12.5 and 1 unit win $2.75 
Carlton 1 unit +10.5 and .5 unit win $2.50
Hawthorn 1 unit +30.5 and .5 unit win $6.10

FRIDAY 30th JULY 

ST KILDA VS CARLTON 

The Saints have lost their last 2 but both have been brave efforts including a “peak” cover effort against the Eagles last run. West Coast had a big lead and the Saints didn’t give up with a nice strong effort to go down narrowly. Carlton are off one of their more disappointing efforts of the year with a 39 point loss to the bottom of the table Kangaroos. Pressure, internal and external, builds on the tenure of Coach David Teague and the Carlton club. It is hardly a good position for a run at the AFL Finals.

That said Carlton has been for long time a great Human Behaviour Model side. They continually ride the up and down roller coaster and the aspects that make them an “ordinary” footy side actually make them a good betting proposition. Their inconsistent form is a great thing from a betting perspective. 

The Saints do hold a 6-1 head to head last 7 but this is the first time these two sides have met since round 5 last year.  Apart from a 2016 blowout, games between the two of recent times has generally been tight average margin 15 points in a range of 10-32 points. The last 3 games has seen a margin of average 14 points in a range of 10-18 points. 5 of the last 7 games have been at Marvel where we are here. Our HBM Human Behaviour Model points to them working to a “peak” performance here and they can get a result against the Saints. 
Carlton 1 unit +10.5 and .5 unit win $2.50

SATURDAY 31st JULY 

ESSENDON VS SYDNEY 

The Swans form since the mid-season break has been terrific, a strong loss to Port followed by 4 straight wins. They are on a nice peak performance run and firmly entrenched in the top 8. After smashing Adelaide a couple of weeks ago the Bombers have been scratchy. They were unconvincing in a win over the Kangaroos and then surrendered a big lead against the Giants that saw them drop out of the 8. The poisoned chalice was thrown to Essendon and they took it, lock, stock and barrel.

These two sides have an extraordinary run of close finishes in recent head to head matches, The last 4 see a 2-2 head to head but the average winning margin is just 6 points. This year it was 83-80 Sydney in a tight one. Recent total game scores have averaged 164 points per game. The last 4 games has averaged 6 point per game margin in a range of 3-10 points per game. This is as tight as any two teams in the comp.

Our Human Behaviour Model points to a possible Sydney dip. It’s not easy to put 4 game streaks together, let alone more than that. At the same time the Bombers off a dip effort will be looking to bounce. With the historical small margins between these teams it promises to be a Friday night classic with the Bombers a bet.
Essendon 2 units +12.5 and 1 unit win $2.75 

NORTH MELBOURNE VS GEELONG 

This is quite an extraordinary run of peaks for both of these teams. On our Human Behaviour modelling, North is on a big 5 game peak performance run and Geelong a 4 game peak run. North Melbourne has been a real revelation. The form they are putting together in the second half of the year is a stunning show of them being on the right track. A the moment it vindicates the choice of coach David Noble, The Kangaroos have had a draw, 3 upset wins and two good efforts against real contenders (Lions and Dogs). They have a new found confidence and another test here. The Cats themselves have been on a 4 game peak run winning and covering in all of those games. Geelong finds itself in a strong position to have a tilt at this years AFL premiership.

 In recent head to head battles the Cats hold a 7-0 advantage an average 30 point margin. North last beat Geelong in 2015. Interesting is they have not played each other in Tassie in any of these games where we are here. 2019 was a 55 point blowout but the balance of recent games results is in a range of 1-37 points. This year was a low 77-47 result in Geelong’s favour. 

From a Human Behaviour perspective this is not a game we can get involved with both sides on consistent peak runs. It doesn’t allow us to apply our human behaviour filters to arrive at an outcome. So whilst the game holds a lot of interest for us to see the true progression of the Roos it’s a no bet game. We will however be looking to next week with interest from a betting perspective. 

GOLD COAST VS MELBOURNE 

Both of these sides are looking to bounce off disappointing performances last week. The Suns smashed in the Q-clash by Brisbane after having a good early lead however a 13 goals to 1 second half put paid to that. The Demons pulled up short in the top of the table clash against the Dogs that sees them relinquish top spot. There is no doubt the Demons have been in somewhat of a post mid season slump with 3 losses and a draw from their last 6 games, there are real strong question marks. The Suns were very impressive covering the line against the Bulldogs 3 weeks ago but yet again show their immaturity to underperform strongly in their next game. 

Melbourne is on a 9 game winning streak head to head versus the Suns. That said the last two games have been tight 17 points and 1 point. This has been punctuated by big Melbourne wins and scores with the Demons kicking 4 scores over 122+ points in the last 7 games. This has resulted in a number of big total game scores of 190+ points in 4 of the last 7 games. Our Human Behaviour Model doesn’t allow criteria for a bet here, but it’s a real test game for the Demons. No bet.

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS ADELAIDE 

The Bulldogs firmed into the clear second fav (behind Geelong) for the AFL Premiership after a strong win against the Demons in the top of the table clash. It’s been a meteoric rise by the Bulldogs this year and they have the strength and talent to go all the way. Adelaide bounced back with a much needed win after they had certainly fallen off a cliff with inconsistent efforts in a 4 game losing streak prior to the weekend. The question still remains over the talent level however the forward line appeared to function much better with Walker present, no surprise there.

The Bulldogs have dominated Adelaide in recent meetings with a 45 point average winning margin the last two games however Adelaide had won the two games prior. In 2019 it was a high scoring 121-87 win at Ballarat which is where we are here. Prior that it was a low scoring 63-26 Adelaide win so scores can go both ways on the low and high side.  There is no clear Human Behaviour angle to this game with both sides off nice peak wins so a no bet game. 

HAWTHORN VS BRISBANE 

A real quirk in the draw sees these two sides meet for the first time since Round 1 2020 (which was a Hawks win). Brisbane after a shock loss to Richmond a couple of weeks ago that saw them drop outside the top 4, were able to steady themselves and bounce with a nice cover win in the Q clash. They must keep this winning form going however whether they can reproduce that winning style with the strong effort required to cover here. Hawthorn stumbled after their strong high peak effort that saw them draw with Melbourne. They dropped a winnable match against Adelaide who had lost 4 in a row in a real trough Hawks effort. 

Brisbane hold a 4-1 head to head the last 5 but the Hawks won there last clash. Brisbane has won the last 2 head to head clashes in Tassie where we are here.  Hawthorn is 1-3 in games in Tassie this year. Recent clashes between the two has seen an average margin of 27 points per game. Total game scores between the two of recent times is 155 points per game.

The real question here is can the Hawks “bounce” again our human behaviour model has them as a bet so the data suggests they will. Since the mid season bye they have shown a nice propensity to the Human Behaviour Model supplying a peak/trough pattern almost weekly. We are tipping a peak Hawks effort off their low last week and they are a bet. 
Hawthorn 1 unit +30.5 and .5 unit win $6.10

SUNDAY AUGUST 1st

GWS VS PORT ADELAIDE 

Both sides coming of nice peak efforts and a clash with a lot on the end of this game for both sides. The Giants have again pushed themselves into the top 8 but as we have seen over and over again this season sides who take this position fall out of it the very next week. Port Adelaide currently have themselves in the top 4 but there is no doubt that Brisbane are breathing down their neck so they must keep winning. 

The Giants actually have dominated Port in recent outings holding a 5-1 head to head the last 7 however Port Adelaide recording a win in their most recent clash. Games generally between the two has been reasonably tight with 6 of the last 7 an average margin of 19 points per game. The range has been 5-31 points in these games.

This game doesn’t lend itself to an investment from a human behaviour perspective. There is no doubt it’s a big game for Port Adelaide to stand up and begin to show they are a real contender in 2021. GWS needs to break the 8^th place “poison chalice” and consolidate a finals spot.

COLLINGWOOD VS WEST COAST 

These two sides are both coming off trough efforts. The Eagles have been one of the more confusing sides of the year and basically displayed the good and bad of their year in one game against the Saints last week. But they got away with the points, however they certainly didn’t inspire confidence. Collingwood are somewhat in limbo at the moment and whilst they are not disgracing themselves there is surely an underlying unrest about what these last few games actually mean to them. A new coach awaits and it is not the one currently coaching them.  As bad as the Eagles have been they have still pretty much cemented themselves a top 8 spot with a game and a half clear of 8^th. 

Games between the two of recent times has generally been close with an average margin of 12 points per game (excluding 1 blow out game). This year it was West Coast 103-76 after last years COVID season 76-75 Collingwood win in a finals thriller. Total game scores of recent times has been average 162 points per game. There is no clear indicator from our Human Behaviour Model this is a no bet game. 

FREMANTLE VS RICHMOND 

Is the end of an era here for Richmond? That is the question around the Tigers. They find themselves a half game outside of the 8 but even if they can make the finals it’s hard to see them have the impact in September. The Dockers are coming through a disappointing loss at the hands of the Swans. They also are half a game outside the 8 making this a real 8 point clash. 

The Tigers hold a 4-1 head to head record the last 5 games with last years game a lowlight 56-29 Richmond win. Prior that was a high scoring 111-86 Richmond win. Of the last 6 head to head games we have had 2 Richmond blowouts, 2 Richmond wins average 26 points. Prior that Fremantles 2 wins were by average 3 points. This is a big test for Fremantle. After coming through their worst 2 efforts of the year for a side that wants some finals action this simply is a must win game. On the flip side you wonder where the Tigers hunger can come from for one last thrust. No clear indicators from a Human Behaviour Model perspective but there is no mistake this is the last chance saloon for both of these sides.