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AFL Betting Tips post COVID look


This article is more related to the AFL Betting Tips season with relation to the AFL Betting Tips Futuresmarket. We really are in unknown territory as to how sides will cope given that there has been such a gap between pre season training and the start of season post COVID-19 restrictions. This is the first 9 teams with the following 9 teams to be released tomorrow.

We believe the experience and depths of AFL lists is going to be more important than ever. The increased likelihood of injuries (with shortened prep) does add an problematic element to the season. Injuries will be crucial and it is hard to believe that in broad terms players will be match fit given the 3 weeks preparation of full squad training.

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The below assessment does not apply to our week to week betting via our HBM Human Behaviour Model. The HBM works applying the results of games coupled with book makers odds, it does not look into the future. So the below information is more related to the AFL Betting Tips Futures markets of Top 8, Top 4, Grand Finalists and Premiership markets:

AVGE AGE 23 years 318 days (ranked 13th)
AVGE GAMES 59 (ranked 12th)

Adelaide have lost a lot of experience, moving on Eddie Betts (316 games), Richard Douglas (226 games), Sam Jacobs (201 games), Josh Jenkins (147 games) and Andy Otten (109 games). That is nearly 1000 games of experience gone and a major shift in the health of the playing list at the Crows. Here are some keys stats on the Crows:
– 24 of their list played under 50 games
– 12 players yet to debut
– a new rookie coach who is yet to win a game (lost both pre season and round 1)
– they now have to relocate to an interstate hub.

After 2019 Adelaide quite clearly went for the long term rebuild. They look to have a challenging season ahead, particularly with their big time players Walker (foot) Brad Crouch (Groins) and Rory Sloane (foot) all with recent season interrupting injuries. Now the Andew McLeod driven culture issue is back on the radar and this club really cannot track a trip at present. A long season is in store.

AVGE AGE 23 years 248 days (ranked 14th)
AVGE GAMES 55 (ranked 14th)

Brisbane had an unbelievable 2019 Season. They have kept the bulk of their list together but the master leader/on field tactician Luke Hodges retirement could leave  the main hole. They have the following:
– average 26 players on the list yet to play 50 games
– 14 yet to make their debut

The big query for Brisbane will be the ability to reproduce the level of form produced in 2019. They were found out in the AFL Finals series going out in straight sets and this can play all sorts of mental games on teams. However with Chris Fagan at the helm he has a natural calming nature that should serve this side well. The hub formats will benefit them for early season. However leaders will need to each lift 5% to attempt to cover Hodges gap. Brisbane has a real strength of midfielders who can run through the mix without a big talent differential this will be a big upside.

AVGE AGE 23 years 274 days (ranked 15th)
AVGE GAMES 64 (ranked 8th)

Carlton is a very interesting side this year. They made a real run in the back half of last season under interim now full time coach David Teague.They have recruited the experienced Eddie Betts and got smart utility Jack Martin from the Suns. Although ranked in the bottom 4 for age they have a mid table ranking for experience, Betts increasing the average there. However the gap between age and games ranking is quite possibly where the improvement can come from the Blues.

AVGE AGE 24 years 304 days (ranked 1st)
AVGE GAMES 74 (ranked 3rd)

Collingwood are perfectly poised for an assault on this year, they have the perfect list profile in almost every regard and they will get a lot of games in Melbourne. Having been deep into September the last 2 years (losing a GF and Prelim by under a goal) there is a sense that the time is now for Collingwood. They have X factor on every line, along with the games best ruckmen. From an age and experience perspective Collingwood look very well placed to make a run to the finals

AVGE AGE 24 years 23 days (ranked 9th)
AVGE GAMES 60 (ranked 11th)

Essendon were one of the most under siege teams late last year losing a string of games yet still making finals. This eventuated in coach Worsfold moving into an overseeing role as Ben Rutten is the heir apparent. Essendon have consistently struggled defensively however this year after some list maturing and with a more “defensive” coach in Rutten becoming a stronger voice this may translate on field to a better defensive group. The Bombers game style is heavily reliant on hard running so it will be interesting to see if they can maintain the high end running off a mini pre season, and also how they manage injuries. Essendon have 24 players under 50 games and 9 to debut.

AVGE AGE 23 years 112 days (ranked 17th)
AVGE GAMES 52 (ranked 17th)

Fremantle are an interesting group. They have a new coach at the helm in Longmuir and they are ranked 2ndlast in age and games played profile. To add to this they have 6 first choice players coming off foot/leg injuries last season, so they will be hoping they hold together with the shorter pre season. Despite the blooding of youth in the last couple of years they still have:
– 25 on the list not to play 50 games
– 13 yet to make their debut.
Fremantle goes to the Gold Coast hub but this will mean multiple games without fortnightly travel which may work in their favour. However being away from home is how their physical effort is affected by not needing to travel. Also you have to wonder what sort of impact Longmuir a new coach has been able to have without the access he wants to players.

AVGE AGE 24 years 238 days (ranked 3rd)
AVGE GAMES 81 (ranked 1st)

Clearly a side that ticks a lot of boxes and is the number 1 ranked side for avge games played across the list. They were almost unstoppable in the first half of last year winning 11 of 12 games. However the reason they were so effective was goal accuracy hitting 67% this reverted to the norm in the second half of the year however and they became vulnerable. The off season recruiting of Josh Jenkins could be the missing link the Cats need as a second tall option up forward could be the finishing touch they need they are in the window . Geelong’s spread of experience is very interesting. They are:
– the highest average games per player
– one of the highest tally of players under 50 games (26)
– 12 players who are yet to debut.

AVGE AGE 23 years 107 days (ranked 18th)
AVGE GAMES 50 (ranked 18th)

Ranked last in age and games played they have:
– 32 players yet to reach the 50 game milestone
– 14 who are yet to debut
They are coming off a terrible season and one would think they couldn’t go any worse. Brandon Ellis and Hugh Greenwood add some experience to the side. Another year into their big recruits Jack Lukosius and Ben King and with Izaak Rankine these are big plusses. They may also be slightly advantaged with the hub on the Gold Coast. However they really have the job ahead in 2020.

AVGE AGE 24 years 208 days (ranked 4th)
AVGE GAMES 69 (ranked 4th)

The Giants have been in the “window” since 2016 with a Grand Final appearance last year they have one more step to take and are well poised to do it. However that AFL Grand Final appearance comes at a cost with a horrible performance that historically is hard to recover from. They retained Stephen Coniglio and this club has done so well in recent years retaining their top line talent. They add a very experienced ruckmen in Sam Jacobs and with their spiritual leader Callan Ward returning from a knee injury they are well placed for success.
– 9 players yet to debut