AFL ROUND 3 THURSDAY 30th MARCH
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS BRISBANE (MARVEL)
It’s been a horror start to the year for the Western Bulldogs in the 2023 AFL season. They are 0-2 and in a world of pain producing TWO “SIGNIFICANT TROUGH” efforts to open their year two 50 point beltings.
Brisbane had a nice bounce last week they were in line for a “SIGNIFICANT PEAK” effort until the lights literally went out at the Gabba. They gave back a big margin late in the game but after nearly an hour off before playing the last 13 mins self preservation (soft tissue injury) with such a big margin was probably in their mind.
These sides only met once last year a resounding Brisbane win, no doubt some revenge for the 1 point Semi Final win by the Dogs in 2021. Four of the last five head to heads have been at the Gabba and we go back to 2018 since the last Marvel Stadium game in Melbourne. Only one of those last 5 games has a team kicked over 100 points and total game scores has been in the 161-165 point range. We have 173.5 put up by the market raters so not much in this.
Bulldogs rank bottom 2 points for and front up here is the problem. The 4 head monster (4 talls in the forward line) has not materialised and we see no choice for Beveridge other than to make changes.
The Bulldogs are on the nose there is no doubt about it and sometimes this very factor can make a team a betting proposition. When the market and market makers are against a team that seems to be in free fall the line can be overplayed, and we feel that is the case here. The Bulldogs have the capability to score but they simply can not make a forward connection so far this season. This is an area they can make sharp improvement and no doubt where they will spend the week attempting to improve.
It’s the first time these sides have played at Marvel since 2018, but the Dogs have won the last 4 played here. Its never as good or as bad as it seems. That’s the common phrase used to explain good and bad performances and we expect that applies here.
The Dogs whilst looking like in trouble can turn it around and in particular against a possible skewed betting market.
WESTERN BULLDOGS BET 1 unit +14.5 and .5 unit win $2.75
