Super Bowl 2022 Rams v Bengals
What another spectacular weekend of games last week in the Conference Finals as we head to Super Bowl LVI. The Divisional Finals weekend that produced four games with total points margins of 15 points. The Conference Finals just as close across the two games with an average margin of three points. Two field goals, one in overtime and the other with 1.45 mins on the clock saw the rank outsider Bengals and the Rams get home.
The Bengals did this as a +7 underdog and the Rams home as a $1.60 fav. The Chiefs throw away another opportunity after winning two seasons ago but last year down to the Buccs last year. Mahomes is no Brady, which he was talked up to be. The all Californian final saw the Rams over the 49ers and now the Rams get to play a home Super Bowl Final. The Buccaneers did this last year, now that’s an omen if we’ve ever seen one.
NFL Betting Tips Super Bowl LVI
We head to the NFL Super Bowl LVI with a season 12.65% profit on turnover and we are off to Los Angeles. For the second successive season, and only the second time in NFL history, we have a team competing in the Super Bowl at its home stadium. The Tom Brady Buccaneers did exactly that last year in winning Super Bowl in Tampa. This year the Los Angeles Rams have gone one step better in getting to the Super Bowl at their home stadium. They do this having won their conference final also at their home stadium.
This years Super Bowl journey
The Rams arrive at the Super Bowl having won the NFC East division 12-5. They then are 15-5 in winning the NFC Conference Final over the 49ers with a late field goal in a 20-17 win to reach the Super Bowl. Prior that it was a 30-27 win over the Buccaneers to finish the Tom Brady era and prior that a comfortable 34-11 win over the Cardinals.
The Bengals come to the Super Bowl with a 10-7 season winning the AFC North. They then won the NFC Conference Final in a 27-24 win over the highly fancied Chiefs with a late field goal. They come here with a 13-7 season win/loss with other play off wins against the Titans 19-16 and the Raiders 26-19.
Key Super Bowl team stats
The teams are actually quite evenly matched on keys stats. Rams are rank 9 offense to the Bengals rank 13. The Rams defense ranks 17 in the NFL to the Bengals 18. Both teams like to throw the ball Rams rank 5 to Bengal 7 in passing.
The big stat differential is in our HBM Human Behaviour Model where we have the Bengals here on a big 3 game peak performance run. The Rams missed the line last game as a -3 fav so despite winning it was a relative trough performance. This makes the Bengals on an extended peak performance run vulnerable and as a result we take the Rams at home as a Best Bet.
Rams BEST BET 2 units WIN $1.60 and 1 unit -4
NFL Betting Season Results
Unit outlay 232.5 units
Unit return 261.9 units
Unit profit 29.4 at 12.65%
Line Bets 69-55-2
Win bets 50-50
Win/Loss Total 119-105-2
