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Melbourne Racing Sunday 28th Sept 2014

Race 1
Reckless assassin was terrific last time out when having first run for a month.  Gets out to a more suitable journey here and with the claim looks the obvious choice.  Aliyana has improved since joining the Weir stable and looks the danger.  Bells of Troy has changed stables and has above average, is a chance first up at odds.  Spinderella looks promising and was good first getting home hard up after stringing 3 wins together last time in work.
Best bet 2 units #1 Reckless Assassin $2.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #4 Aliyana $4
Value bet 0.5 unit #2 Bells of Troy $16
Value bet 0.5 unit Spinderella $4

Race 2

Pyrrolic was good last 2 times at the Valley and this looks ideal.  Scratched Friday night for this.

Surpass returns from a successful campaign in NSW here and looks a good hope.  Would prefer on wet track, which probably won’t get here, but has ability. Count Encosta has been consistent of late and although coming back in distance, can’t be left out.  Longeron was easy winner 2 starts back and then competitive last time out when stepping up in class.  Wrotham Heath is in good form currently and looks to be amongst the chances.

Strong bet 1 unit #11 Pyrrolic $4

Value bet 0.5 unit #8 Surpass $7
Value bet 0.5 unit #9 Count Encosta $5
Value bet 0.5 unit #12 Wrotham Heath $5
Value bet 0.5 unit #13 Longeron$7

Race 3
Minaj looks the likely leader here and at best would be hard to beat.  Hai Lil has plenty of ability and first up looks a chance despite wide draw.  Griante was terrific last prep proving to be very consistent.  Should be improved by first up run and looks to have plenty of upside.  Red Fez is first up here and has ability.  Stable flying at the minute, so must be included.
Value bet 0.5 unit #2 Minaj $6
Value bet 0.5 unit #3 Hai Lil $12
Value bet 0.5 unit #4 Griante $8
Value bet 0.5 unit #11 Red Fez $6

Race 4
Le Roi is first up here over the 1700m but stable has a knack of producing stayers first up over a distance.  Boasts a good strike rate and at best would be the one to beat.  Prince of Penzance looked a little disappointing last time but may not have been suited by pace. Electric Fusion gets out to a more suitable distance here after 3 runs over the shorter trips.  Looks a good value chance at odds.
Strong bet 1 unit #3 Le Roi $6
Strong bet 1 unit #5 prince of Penzance $6
Value bet 0.5 unit #8 Electric Fusion $11

Race 5
Bring Me The Maid has been competing at top level all around the Nation and on that form and from perfect barrier looks the obvious choice. Lumosty looks promising and a couple of gear changes are of note.  Afleet Esprit hasn’t put a foot wrong this prep and looks value again here.  Picking Time has wraps on her, but is yet to convince.  Was a good second last week after covering extra ground. Watch on Go Indy Go, who was terrible first up but may have had excuses and at best would be right in this.
Strong bet 1 unit #1 Bring Me The Maid $3
Value bet 0.5 unit #5 Afleet Esprit $9
Value bet 0.5 unit #6Lumosty $7
Value bet 0.5 unit #10 Picking Time $7
Value bet 0.5 unit #2 Go Indy Go $16

Race 6
Looks Like The Cat was super at first Victorian run and should be suited out to the 1400m.  Awesome Rock was good in same race and is going along nicely this prep.  Get the Nod was a little disappointing last time out after a good first up win.  May pay to forget last run.
Strong bet 1 unit #8 Looks Like The Cat $4
Value bet 0.5 unit #5 Get the Nod $21
Value bet 0.5 unit #10 Awesome Rock $8

Race 7
Cluster looks to have improved since changing stables and although drawn wide here, looks the one to beat. 4 starts for new trainer for 3 wins and a second is impressive and this looks ideal.
Late Charge was good winning last start in weaker grade after travelling wide.  Trust in a Gust bolted in last week, but also at a lesser level.  He does look promising.  Akavoroun could be the surprise runner at odds.
Strong bet 1 unit #7 Cluster $6
Value bet 0.5 unit10 Akavoroun $16
Value bet 0.5 unit #12 Late Charge $10
Value bet 0.5 unit #13 Trust in a Gust $7

Race 8
Vain Queen had no luck last time and should’ve won.  Looks to be the one to beat in an open event.  Lion of Belfort was sound first up and at best would be in the finish.  Wales goes well fresh and first up here at odds looks to offer value.
Strong bet 1 unit #10  Vain Queen $4.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #12 Lion of Belfort $10
Value bet 0.5 unit 18 Wales $16




1st leg 1,2,5,6,10

2nd leg 1,2,5,8,10

3rd leg 1,5,7,10,12,13

4th leg 2,3,10,12.18