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Flemington Saturday 31 January

Wawail is 3 wins from only 3 starts and with not a lot of opposition here, looks a good thing.  Only query is the fact she is first up and how forward she is?  Letter From Paris looks a value bet at good odds.  Won easily at second race start after good second at first run.  Both starts up the bush.
Best bet 2 units #1 Wawail $2.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #8 Letter From Paris $12

Lucky Liberty has been terrific and 2 easy country wins and thinking can measure up to city class here.  Convincible was good winner last here over 1200 and looks suited by the 1400 although drawn awkwardly.  Da Paolina won well midweek last time out and repeat effort would put  him around the mark at good odds.
Best bet 2 units #10 Lucky Liberty $2.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #5 Da Paolina $16
Value bet 0.5 unit #7 Convincible $7

Better Land competed at top level dur ing the Sydney Spring Carnival and on his efforts there should be able to account for this lot.   Street Allure has good ability but doesn’t look that well weighted against the males here.  Pendles was easy winner at Ballarat last time out and with the services of D. Oliver, is amongst the value chances.
Strong bet 1 unit #9 Better Land $3
Value bet 0.5 unit #4 Street Allure $5
Value bet 0.5 unit #8 Pendles $7

Betsy bolted in a first start before placing in Adelaide at Listed level.  First up here and if primed to go, looks strong chance.  Native Land is consistent but doesn’t win often.  If brings A game, is a danger.  Elle Excites was heavily backed on Aust Day and got the prize.  If backs up here is also good chance.
Strong bet 1 unit #10 Betsy $3.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #8 Native Land $10
Value bet 0.5 unit #11 Elle Excites $6

Race 5
Looks to be another strong chance here in Akzar.  Should be cherry ripe after 2 runs bac k and out to more suitable 2000m.  Thinking danger is stablemate, Tooleybuc Kid.  3 runs back this prep have been fair, but down in weights and strips fitter for this.
Strong bet 1 unit #1 Akzar $3
Value bet 0.5 unit #7 Tooleybuc Kid $6

Spanish Love didn’t look suited when racing inside horses on the fence last start.  Drawn inside again, but if can get to the outside. Will be better suited and can get over the top of them.  Sure You Can sat back and came hard to win same race last start and repeat effort would see her the main danger.
Strong bet 1 unit #7 Spanish Love $4
Value bet 0.5 unit #6 Sure You Can $5.50

Tonopah was never in doubt last start when labelled a special by yours truly.  Up 3 kg here and drawn wide which is a minor concern, but with luck, should be winning again.  Every Faith drops significantly in weight here but goes from mares grade to competing against the boys.  Was good second on that occasion and p rior to that won well at the Valley.  Turnitaround was good winner here 2 starts back and then handy effort last Saturday in strong race.
Best bet 2 units #6 Tonopah $2.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #10 Every Faith $5
Value bet 0.5 unit #14 Turnitaround $8

Things get tougher with the last couple of races, with numerous chances in each.  Jimando won well first up in Adelaide and although maybe looking for further ground, should be suited by straight track.
Charmed Harmony has terrific strike rate and first up here would be right in this if ready for it.  Also preferred over more ground but should sprint well fresh.  Weinholt is also first up and on best form, would be a chance.  May have drawn wrong side of the track.  Bishops Castle was good winner here over same distance a fortnight back.  Looks good chance if can reproduce that run.
Value bet 0.5 unit #1 Jimando $9
Value bet 0.5 unit #6 Charmed Harmony $6
Value bet 0.5 unit #8 Weinholt $8
V alue bet 0.5 unit #9 Bishops Castle $8

Another tough race to close off the programme.  Resistant is first up here over the 1400m and has gone well fresh in the past.  Wide draw is a concern.  Specter broke through for overdue win last start and may go on with it now he knows how to win.  Hero Master was terrific first up and then a little disappointing second up.  Has had freshen up for this and will be getting home hard.
Value bet 0.5 unit #2 Resistant $12
Value bet 0.5 unit #8 Specter $9
Value bet 0.5 unit #11 Hero Master $6

1st leg 1,6,7,8
2nd leg 6,10,14
3rd leg 1,4,6,8,9,12
4th leg 2,8,10,11,12,14