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Flemington Saturday 10th January 2015

Race 1:
Of the 11 runners only 3 have faced the starter. Given the lack of exposed form happy to watch on.

Race 2:
Thinking we can get this down to 2 strong hopes. Every Faith was good to us last time out when easy winner over the same distance at the Valley. Up in weights here but drawn to get cushy run and looks the class runner. Madam Gangster is going for 4 wins on end here and looks the only other chance. Also drawn well but not sure if in the same class as the prior.

Strong Bet 1 unit #2 Every Faith $3.80
Strong Bet 1 unit #4 Madam Gangster $3.50

Race 3:
Tough stayers’ event over the 2500m. Tamby was a terrific second last time out in the Bagot. Was big odds that day but a repeat effort would see him very hard to beat. Kazemi lacks the experience of many of the other runners but has more upside. Good 4th at the Valley last start in lesser grade and looks to offer value.

Value Bet 0.5 #4 Tamby $4
Value Bet 0.5 #8 Kazemi $9

Race 4:
Relaunch, lightly raced galloper from the Kavanagh stable, won well first up and followed up with a good 2nd at the Valley. The 1400m looks ideal here and thinking a strong bet at good odds. Risky Business has only been at the races once for an easy win at Mornington when well fancied. Looks promising and could be the danger.

Strong Bet 1 unit #7 Relaunch $5
Value Bet 0.5 unit #8 Risky Business $6

Race 5:
Von Classic Hero looks very promising after 3 terrific runs at first campaign. Drawn the rails here and with the claim looks likely to settle just off the pace and prove very hard to beat. Churchill’s Wit is also sparingly raced and looks to have a bright future. Scherzoso comes over from SA with consistent form. Has the services of G Boss, good draw and looks the only other hope.

Strong Bet 1 unit #12 Von Classic Hero $4.80
Value Bet 0.5 unit #3 Churchill’s Wit $6.50
Value Bet 0.5 unit #11 Scherzoso $7.50

Race 6:
In probably the toughest race of the program, going with some value bets. Last sight was good winner 2 starts back at the Valley. Then not beaten far in strong form race down the straight. Will push forward from wide draw and if can get across will be hard to beat. Reddamour has always shown promise and got the prize last time out in Adelaide. Also drawn wide but with any luck will be in the finish. Name The Day could be the smokey of the field. Has obviously had issues having only had 7 starts as a 5 year old. First up here, good trainer, good jockey, blinkers off, big watch.

Strong Bet 1 unit #13 Last Sight $8
Value Bet 0.5 unit #10 Reddamour $10
Value Bet 0.5 unit #18 Name The Day $15

Race 7:
Aeratus didn’t do much at first up run from spell but improved second up for a good third in Listed race. Has terrific strike rate and if can back up last run looks the one to beat. Tax Evader hasn’t done much at 3 runs this time in but thinking cherry ripe for this. Drawn well, has claim and double figure odds. Great value.

Strong Bet 1 unit #8 Aeratus $4
Value Bet 0.5 unit #10 Tax Evader $10

Race 8:
In what looks to be the class race of the day, The Quarterback looks perfectly placed. Stable has been very patient and selective in where he’s run and this looks another good choice. Drawn the outside, which only adds to his chances. Can see him getting home hard out wide over the top of them. Looks to be one of the better bets of the day. Outside The Quarterback there seems to be some good value. Sandhill Flash comes over from SA in great form. Not sure if can measure up but at big odds offers good value. Klishina didn’t have much luck last start, up in grade here but is also a chance at value odds.

Best Bet 2 units #5 The Quarterback $3.60
Value Bet 0.5 unit #9 Sandhill Flash $16
Value Bet 0.5 unit #12 Klishina $16

Race 9:
In a tough race to finish of the program going with D. Weir and Scarlet Billows. Lightly raced and good winner first up at Mornington. Drawn the right side of the track and will be hard to beat. Oh So Assertive six times the races for 3 wins, including big win last start at Bendigo. Is obviously one of the major contenders. If in trouble and looking for value, maybe try something each way on Whistle Baby at big odds who looked a little unlucky last start.

Strong Bet 1 unit #5 Scarlet Billows $4.50
Value Bet 0.5 unit #11 Whistle Baby $15
Value Bet 0.5 unit #12 Oh So Assertive $7

1st leg: 4,10,13,16,18
2nd leg: 1,2,6,8,10
3rd leg: 1,2,3,4,9,12
4th leg: 5,11,12