ANZAC DAY – (MCG)
The big traditional ANZAC day clash and the promise of the Bombers has been fading fast. They were winless in the opening 3 rounds, scrambled home against Adelaide (4 points) and then were smacked by the Dockers last weekend with former players saying they “simply gave up”. Their former champion Matthew Lloyd labelled it as poor a loss as you will see and he has put a line through them for the finals.
Collingwood although beaten lost no admirers in a strong showing on the Easter Thursday clash against the Lions. HOWEVER this is the style of recipe that can turn up a nice edge on our Human Behaviour Model. An under siege side with backs against the wall (Essendon) up against a side not expected to do much and find themselves in the 8 and off an “honourable” loss. To go along with this Collingwood are off a 10 day break….this can just leave a softer underbelly leading in to such a hot emotional contest.
Essendon has won the last 3 head to head whilst Collingwood had won the 3 prior. Average winning margins have been 22 points per game and if we take the two 38+ point margin results out it becomes 14 points per game. Last year there was a 194 point total game but that game aside it’s a tight range at 148 points per game. We feel the Bombers bounce here and Collingwood may just find a dip in form in what has been a better start to the year.
Essendon 1 unit Line +9.5 and .5 unit Win $2.40
Total game score UNDER 172.5 for .5 unit
