Caulfield Sat 14th February
Tonapah looked a little disappointing last start when failed to run on as he did at previous start. With the addition of blinkers here, willing to give another chance. Every Faith likewise was disappointing in same race last time out, but on best form would be right in this. Harveys True Heart has been around the mark of late and at good each way odds, looks value.
Strong bet 1 unit #9 Tonapah $4
Strong bet 1 unit #10 Every Faith $6
Value bet 0.5 unit #12 Harveys True Heart $10
Royal Schnitzel was terrific winner last time out, when covered plenty of ground out wide but was still too strong. Has race fitness on her side, which may be the difference over some of the first uppers. Fontein Ruby will be getting home hard, but prefer over more ground. Afleet Esprit will be hard to hold out if anywhere near best.
Best bet 2 units #6 Royal Schnitzel $2.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #1 Fontein Ruby $7
Value bet 0.5 unit #2 Afleet Esprit $4.50
Fontiton is the ruling favourite for Blue Diamond and this will decide if she remains such. Looked to struggle a little in winning last start after a scintillating first start victory. Has trialled well for this.
Both Heatherly and Secret Agenda were easy first start winners and look the threats.
Best bet 2 units #1 Fontiton $2.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #5 Heatherly $6
Value bet 0.5 unit #6 Secret Agenda $4.50
Of the Brave won easily on debut here back in the spring and was spelled for these feature Autumn races. Looks very promising. Sampeah was good winner in Sydney on debut and looks a good hope as does Pride of Dubai, who got home hard for third on debut, also in Sydney.
Strong bet 1 unit #1 Of the Brave $3.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #4 Sampeah $6
Value bet 0.5 unit #10 Pride of Dubai $6
Red Excitement was good winner last time out, be it by a small margin. Thinking will be better suited by the 1600m and looks a strong hope. Big Memory has gone well first up in the past and will go well here first up, although preferred over more ground. Akzar is back in distance after failing over 2000m when fancied. Gets down in weights here and will improve.
Strong bet 1 unit #10 Red Excitement $3
Value bet 0.5 unit #3 Big Memory $9
Value bet 0.5 unit #8 Akzar $7
Chautauqua looks the bet of the day, but will be prohibitive odds. Only query would be whether he is a better horse at Flemington. Has terrific record and should be winning. Possible upset dangers look to be Atmospherical and Eloping, both possessing plenty of ability and good strike rates.
Best bet 2 units #1 Chautauqua $1.60
Value bet 0.5 unit #7 Atmospherical $6.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #9 Eloping $6.50
Hong Kong Captain and Profit Share quinelled the race they last me t and after Profit Share backed that up with a good win last week, thinking they are the 2 to work around. Zebullon trained off towards the end of last prep but has good ability and wouldn’t surprise first up.
Strong bet 1 unit #2 Hong Kong Captain $5
Strong bet 1 unit #5 Profit Share $5
Value bet 0.5 unit #10 Zebullon $12
Wasn’t surprised to see Dissident beaten first up over 1200m but out to 1400m here is the key. Was terrific last prep in anything around 1400 and should be stalking the pace here. Wouldn’t be taking silly odds however. 3yr olds, Petrology and Java look the dangers, as both are on the way up and have plenty of potential.
Strong bet 1 unit #2 Dissident $3.50
Value bet 0.5 uniy #14 Petrology $6
Value bet 0.5 unit #15 Java $7
Girl Guide has only missed a place once in 11 starts and is unbeaten at 2 first up runs. Drawn to get cushy run and looks strong hope. Dangers look to be another couple of first uppers in Solicit and Politeness. Both have plenty of ability and if ready to go, would not surprise. Watch betting on all 3, for any positive moves!
Strong bet 1 unit #5 Girl Guide $3.50
Value bet 0.5 unit #2 Solicit $6
Value bet 0.5 unit #3 Politeness $6
1st leg 1
2nd leg 2,5,8,9,10
3rd leg 1,2,7,10,11,12,14,15
4th leg 2,3,5,8,10