ADELAIDE VS PORT ADELAIDE (ADELAIDE OVAL)
The Showdown is a classic cross town rivalry and arguably the strongest rivalry in footy. Since Port has entered the AFL it’s the classic 50/50 rivalry with after 53 contests its 27-26 Ports way.
After looking like a top 8 team mid season the Crows really have fallen of the wagon. They have lost 5 of there last 6 (the only win over North Melbourne) but at the same time two of those losses have been less by a kick. They have had TERIFFIC “peak losses” to top 4 sides Collingwood and Melbourne. It really is the indicator that when Adelaide bring their best they can beat anyone and when they don’t they are vulnerable.
Port Adelaide had the 13 game winning run but have now had back to back losses. They have both been “trough losses” (the Carlton loss “significant trough”) but that said they lost no admirers in the loss to Collingwood in what was the highest intensity game of the year.
These are the classic 50-50 games traditionally and the low point of Port Adelaide’s season was when they actually lost the Showdown in Round 3 this year. It became the launching pad for their extraordinary winning run. Adelaide showed real fight last week to dig in and are absolutely capable should they bring their best. It was high scoring in Round 3 117-86 and the last 3 games have all been high scoring. Prior that we had 106 and 125 total point games. So a wide range here of 203 to 106 points gets us an average of 157 with the market 176.5 anticipating a high scoring shoot out.
There is just too much on this for Port to fold AND they MUST keep winning to maintain a top 4 spot and get the luxury of 2 weeks in a row at home. Crows off a peak last week and Port off the minor trough its Port to bounce BUT likely to be tight.
PORT ADELAIDE BET 1 unit win $1.50
Total game points .5 unit UNDER 176.5
Adelaide UNDER .25 unit 81.5 points
