FRIDAY NIGHT AFL COLLINGWOOD VS RICHMOND (MCG)
Note: to open Dusty Martin is out of the Richmond team and along with three other injuries to starting 22 players the line has drifted from +6.5 to +16.5 and may drift further. This tests our modelling however as good as Martin is we feel Richmonds game style is sound enough to cover these players ie one out and one takes the place in the game plan.
Collingwood have VERY quickly stamped themselves as the premiership threat rocketing to equal flag fav (with Melbourne) after they clinically SMASHED Port Adelaide!! The betting market and the market makers themselves become somewhat infatuated with these high octane offensive teams. They are exciting to watch and when they crush opposition it’s hard to see how they can be stopped.
That however is the art to backing winners in the sports betting world you have to see past the glitz and the glamour of big wins as well as see past the clouds of darkness that follow big losses. When you are able to truly believe that any performance is not as good or as bad as it seems to the naked eye (this can be very hard to do as we are trained to believe what we see) then you are in a position to make bets that run against the grain…this is where the value exists.
Richmond is coming off a nice away win against Adelaide. They gave up a BIG 45 point lead at half time the margin cut to just 1 point in the final term. But they rebalanced and had a nice peak effort in the finish.
With Collingwood’s HUGE scoring in the opening 2 games (125 and 135 points) given they are so far in excess of expectation there is no doubt the algorythym will over adjust. With the exception of a quarter against Adelaide last week Richmond have been stingy in defence conceding JUST 96 points in 7 quarters of footy. This will be something for Collingwood to combat and may see a departure from their onslaught in the opening 2 rounds to a different contest here.
Richmond won the corresponding game by 27 points last year and it is Collingwood 3-2 head to head over the last 5 games. There was a 36-36 draw in the COVID year 2020 game and we dismiss this anomaly from our numbers. The winning team generally has been able to kick 100 points in recent games. The total game score from the bookmakers is 180 points and we have the range in what we expect a tight game in the 155-165 point range. We expect Richmond to tighten right up on Collingwood here.
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