BRISBANE VS MELBOURNE, GABBA
We get the nice sample here with these two playing each other 5 times in the last 18 months.
The Lions snapped a 4 game losing streak to the Demons last year in the Semi Final with a brave win at the MCG. However last time at the Gabba they were embarrassed with Melbourne inflicting one of their worst defeats at home in recent memory an almost 10 goal defeat. This was followed up prior a 10 goal Brisbane loss at the MCG. The closest recent loss is a 22 point Melbourne win at the SCG in 2021 round 12. Melbourne has been able to score freely against Brisbane with 2 scores 100+ and 2 scores in the 90+. Brisbane has struggled with 3 scores under 60 points.
Brisbane was as bad as it gets in the second half against Port Adelaide. It is as though they thought the game was done at half time. They didn’t fire a shot and this has to be concerning for Fagan. At the same time post game all he spoke about was the response that needs to come here. Brisbane produced a “significant trough effort” here and the language and focus all week will be on the “response”. So we see them producing a MUCH better effort. To not respond would be a HUGE dent in their premiership aspirations.
Melbourne was very clinical controlling their season opener and really nailing the attacking (115 points) and defending (65 points) phases of the game. It was a “SIGNIFICANT PEAK” performance against a side who may be in the mix for the 8 this year.
This match represents a nice option for us here a “SIGNIFICANT TROUGH” against a “SIGNIFICANT PEAK”. Both the market and the bookies can tend to over adjust to the one result. In doing so failing to factor in effectively the human behaviour elements of “bounce back factor” and “comfortable with themselves” factor allowing us an edge on the previously under performed team. Brisbane has drifted the market likes Melbourne.
