AFL ROUND 8 PREVIEWS AND TIPS
FRIDAY 7th MAY
RICHMOND VS GEELONG (MCG)
The Grand final rematch and the Tigers have won 5 of the last 6 clashes between these sides including last year’s flag. Geelong make no mistake let the flag slip from their grasp last year after having a 21 point lead late in the second quarter they surrendered meekly in the 2nd half to go down by 5 goals. Geelong are coming through a shock loss to the Swans, they had control of that game most of the night but their inability to convert opportunities a big problem for them. Richmond on the other hand are off a nice peak effort coming from behind to knock of the previously unbeaten Dogs. Richmond at their best play scintillating football and we witnessed last Friday night. At some stage Geelong have to stand up and get this poor Richmond record back on an even keel. Our human behaviour model looks to the Cats who are due for a lift off a trough effort conversely the Tigers are off a strong peak effort.
We get the nice sample on these two having played 8 times in the last 4 years including 3 finals. Richmond has dominated games with only one what would we class as super close, 3 points in 2018. Games have also been surprisingly low scoring with the game high of 168 points out of the last 8 head to head.
Geelong 1 unit +8.5 and .5 unit win $2.40
SATURDAY 8th MAY
GWS GIANTS VS ESSENDON (GIANTS STADIUM)
These two sides have built up a nice rivalry over the last few matches the Giants however winning 5 of the last 7 encounters. Back in Round 1 2019 when the Bombers were expected to be marching up the ladder again they were rocked by an intense outfit that would go on to play in the Grand Final that year. This loss was very embarrassing for Essendon and is sure to be still sitting with a few players. Their last 2 clashes have been decided by less than a kick with a 1-1 split. The Giants have arrived in a purple patch of form winning 3 of there last 4 matches and a MASSIVE peak effort last week. Essendon were back to earth with a thud after a big Anzac Day win they were beaten by the crosstown rivals the Blues. It was a trough effort by the Bombers who can certainly bounce back. It looks a battle of the inside/outside game here if the Bombers can get it on the outside.
Total game scores between the two have generally been low in the 145 points range aside from the 218 total points in 2016. That said GWS has kicked +112 points in 3 of the last 6 games. We look to an Essendon bounce here.
Essendon 1 unit +17.5 and .5 unit win $2.75
GOLD COAST VS ST KILDA (METRICON STADIUM)
The Gold Coast Suns have found themselves some nice form with strong back to back wins they steady the ledger at 3-4 for the season. We have always maintained the are well coached and needed belief to break out of the mediocrity mould and they now appear to have done that. The Saints after a wobbly few weeks worked their way back into form with a powerful peak effort against the Hawks last week that will fill them with confidence. With the Suns being on back to back peak performances it does expose them to a downward trend, the Saints are off a single game peak effort it should give them the confidence to go again after an ordinary few weeks.
The Saints are 5-0 in their recent clashes with the Suns last win in 2016, 108-68 at Metrion where we are here. But incredibly the last four margins have all been under 4 points per game with an average of 3 points per game…and St Kilda has won all of them! Total game scores average has been in the range of 165 points per game and only 1 of the last 10 scores between the two has been over 100 points. We think the Saints have the slight edge in this game through our modelling but it is not a big edge so we take the Saints as a small bet.
St Kilda 1 unit win $1.80
NORTH MELBOURNE VS COLLINGWOOD (MARVEL STADIUM)
It goes from bad to worse for Collingwood losing 5 straight and with huge pressure on their coach Nathan Buckley. Note this pressure should not only sit with him but equally across the club. They have been a debacle on and off ground right back to the salary cap issues and trade of Treloar, Eddies departure around a range of issues and the selection of a new President. This has all now spilled onto the ground.
The Roos aren’t to much better but they have shown patches and led the league leaders last week at half time. They have been blown off the park in almost all games this year. Surely this is the game for Collingwood to draw a line in the sand, all hell will break lose if Collingwood lose here. North Melbourne although not coming away with the points last week probably won a small amount of credibility and may feel a little better about themselves. If you were to talk about the ramifications of losing this game between these two clubs the fallout is 10 times greater for Collingwood than North. We feel it brings a level of desire from the Pies that won’t be matched by the Roos off a peak performance effort last week.
Collingwood have won 3 of the last 5 contests between the two clubs with three of the games at Marvel where we are here for 2-1 North. 3 of the last 6 games have been total game score in the 200 point range so they can score high. For Collingwood this would be the time to score! Games generally have not been tight with 30 point margin the closest of recent games. We take Collingwood here to bounce on the back of the North peak last week.
Collingwood 1 unit win $1.40 and .5 unit -20.5
MELBOURNE VS SYDNEY (MCG)
Melbourne has become the power team of the AFL. In trouble against North last week they kicked 5 goals in 8 minutes in quarter 3 and 4 goals in 8 minutes in quarter 4 to ice the game. Sydney had a big last gasp win against the Cats last week in what was a nice peak performance display in a game that for most of it they looked dead. Melbourne although remaining undefeated had their first “trough” of the year failing to cover in the Kangaroos game.
Melbourne have a shocking record against the Swans losing 8 of the last 9 encounters but Melbourne look to be on the march and are beginning to erase some of these poor records. The MCG is not played well by the Swans in general however they destroyed Richmond on their last visit. 3 of the last 6 head to head have been here at the G and the Swans have won them all. So they have had a recent domination of Melbourne in each and every facet. It was 21 points to Sydney last year and games have not been that close in margin, 9 points is the recent closest. We look to Melbourne here on the back of a big Sydney peak last week.
Melbourne 1 unit win $1.35 and .5 unit -23.5
PORT ADELAIDE VS ADELAIDE (ADELAIDE OVAL)
Both of these sides are coming off terrible performances. After a promising start to the year the Crows have really fallen off a cliff their last three games. They were like witches hats against the Giants last time. Port Adelaide got their wake up call with a thrashing at the hands of the Lions. With both of these sides coming off such bad losses into the fierce showdown rivalry one thing is for sure….its going to be a hot opening term.
Port has won the last 2 Showdowns with the last 6 being a 3-3 split between the two. Port has kicked big scores in the last two at 101+ points in smashing Adelaide. The three games prior had been relatively close average 9 points per game with a 3 and 5 point game margins in two of them. Both teams off trough performances means this is a no bet game with Port a -30.5 and $1.20 fav. This is probably too short given the 50-50 nature of these games over a long period. No bet.
SUNDAY 9th MAY
HAWTHORN VS WEST COAST (MCG)
The West Coast is off a huge peak win in the Derby making it their 11th straight derby victory it was a powerful peak performance effort. The Eagles away form has been poor this year losing all three away games their most recent an almost 100 point smashing at Geelong. Hawthorn themselves are off a terrible trough effort against the Saints an almost 12 goal defeat. It’s a classic HBM Human Behaviour Model game with a team off a big peak and a team off a big trough there is generally an overcorrection in the market and a nice opportunity exists historically with the trough team.
West Coast hold a 3-2 head to head advantage in the last 5 games with two of those game close average 10 points per game. We had a 200 point game in 2017 however generally in the 150 point range. We look to a Hawthorn bounce here on the back of the Eagles peak last week.
Hawthorn 1 unit +13.5 and .5 unit win $2.80
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS CARLTON (MARVEL)
The Bulldogs suffered their first defeat of the year last week against the reigning premiers. They looked to have it in the bag early in the game but couldn’t withstand the Tiger pressure that turned the game bigtime in the second half. Carlton are coming off a nice peak effort and they are in the opposite camp, they looked the ones in big trouble toward half time but managed to steady and finish over the top of the Bombers. The Bulldogs will be looking to bounce straight back here of the loss however the Blues forward line must be respected they kicked the 6th highest score for the year last week in the AFL.
The Bulldogs have a 4-2 recent win/loss against the Blues in recent times and in 2019 it was a 103-100 Dogs win by 3 points. 3 of the last 5 games have been in the 20 point margin range so far from blow outs. We look to the Bulldogs to bounce here off last weeks loss on the back of the Carlton peak.
Bulldogs 1 unit win $1.40 and .5 unit -20.5
FREMANTLE VS BRISBANE (OPTUS STADIUM)
The AFL has transferred this game away from Perth because of COVID. We are not really sure what this means other than Freo cannot afford to play another home game in front of no crowd. Thanks again to King McGowan (WA Premier)! So the market swings here from +10.5 to +30.5 Fremantle.
Brisbane is on a real run they have won there last 3 in really good style and a three game peak performance run. The Dockers had been in nice form themselves winning 3 in a row before being stopped in their traces by the rampaging Eagles last week. There will be complete embarrassment on the Dockers behalf after yet again not showing up for the Derby, they would’ve slinked around Perth all week trying to avoid the public.
Brisbane has won 3 of the last 4 head to head and it is 3-3 in the last 6 games. In 2019 it was a 73-72 and a 1 point win to Freo and last year 81-69 Brisbane win at the Gabba. All other recent games have been of significant margins. The three game peak for Brisbane is significant and we take Freo here looking to a bounce from last weeks loss.
Fremantle 2 units +30.5 and .5 unit win $4.50